UFC 303: Alex Pereira vs. Jiri Prochazka 2 Prediction, Pick and Odds

After initially meeting in Madison Square Garden at UFC 295, Alex Pereira and Jiri Prochazka will compete in a short-notice rematch on June 29.

Pereira (10-2, 7-1 in UFC) won the vacant 205-pound title in their first fight in November 2023. Pereira enters the rematch in an unfavorable position, still recovering from a broken toe from his last training camp in preparation for a fight in April against Jamahal Hill.

Prochazka (30-4-1, 4-1 in UFC) also last competed on UFC 300, knocking out Aleksandar Rakic in the second round after losing the first. Though Prochazka was getting picked apart by Rakic for most of the fight, he did not appear to have any lingering injuries when accepting the short-notice fight offer.

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Alex Pereira vs. Jiri Prochazka 2 odds and round total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Moneyline:

• Alex Pereira -130
• Jiri Prochazka +110

Total Rounds:

• 1.5 (Over -166/Under +130)

Alex Pereira vs. Jiri Prochazka 2 best bet

In the first fight between these two, Prochazka was the fighter returning from an injury and his team later claimed he fought at UFC 295 banged up.

The tables have now turned entering UFC 303 with Pereira nursing at least one broken toe and seeming to be in offseason mode when the call came from the front office. The UFC will push the finishing sequence as the main highlight promoting the matchup but this is an entirely different fight.

Pereira accepted this fight but in his reaction post on social media and everything he has publicly stated, he is not in the best condition to fight and likely needed to be convinced by Hunter Campbell with a substantial pay raise. Perhaps the only reason Pereira would put his title on the line in such an unfavorable situation is his win over Prochazka at UFC 295 guaranteeing he would get a trilogy fight should he lose.

While Pereira knocked out Prochazka in the first meeting, the numbers do not tell the full tale. The Brazilian struggled with Prochazka's awkward approach and admitted as such on UFC Countdown. Prochazka was consistently the fighter pushing forward and hurt Pereira on numerous occasions with his right hand.

Pereira's best weapon in the fight was his leg kick, landing 12 damaging strikes down low. Aside from it being one of his primary weapons, that was asuredly a part of the game plan with Prochazka's unnnaturally wide stance. The only problem for Pereira in recreating that success is in his broken toe being on his right foot, his primary kicking leg.

Look for this one to end before the final horn and consider the Under 4.5 alternate round prop (-475) as a rock-solid parlay addition. Since this line has opened, almost 80 percent of bets have been on Pereira but the odds are shifting in favor of Prochazka.

Prediction: Prochazka by KO/TKO in round three

Best bet: Jiri Prochazka by KO/TKO or submission (+180)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.