UFC 303: Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes Prediction, Pick and Odds

As a part of their attempt to bolster UFC 303 in the absence of Conor McGregor, Brian Ortega and Diego Lopes were called upon to meet in the co-main event on short notice.

Ortega (16-3 with one no-contest, 8-3 with one no-contest in UFC) potentially salvaged his career with a come-from-behind submission win over Yair Rodriguez in February. The win was his first since 2020 and on June 29, 'T-City' will be completing his quickest turnaround between fights in the UFC.

Lopes (24-6, 3-1 in UFC) is riding an impressive win streak that last included a knockout of Sodiq Yusuff to launch himself into the featherweight rankings. Since debuting on short notice against Movsar Evloev at UFC 288, Lopes will be fighting for the fifth time in just 13 months at UFC 303.

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Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes Odds and Round Total

Moneyline

• Ortega: +118
• Lopes: -150

Total: 2.5 (Over +110/Under -140)

Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes Prediction and Pick

Despite the hype, Lopes is not an elite fighter. At least not yet.

He had his moments against Movsar Evloev at UFC 288 and impressed in his performances since then but a lot can be said of Evloev likely accepting the short-notice matchup not believing it would be as tough as it turned out. Aside from the highlight-reel finishes, there is a lot to be desired in Lopes' fundamentals, particularly with his striking.

Offensively, Lopes clearly has power, recording three knockdowns in his last two fights. That can be a blessing and a curse, as he has no intention of establishing a jab or throwing anything at less than 100 percent power.

Through 20 professional fights, Ortega has never been legitimately finished, only losing before the final horn by injury TKO and doctor's stoppage. His durability, cardio and pressure are elite and over time his striking has consistently improved.

Lopes' all-out offensive approach has worked thus far but defensively, he owns a porous 37 percent striking defense. When Lopes was not pulling submission attempts out of thin air in his debut, Evloev could not miss, hitting 68 percent of his significant strikes.

Ortega has never been much of a wrestler but in his last fight, he successfully took Yair Rodriguez down three times and accumulated over five minutes of control time. When taken down, Lopes is a constant submission threat but has a bad habit of looking to play from his guard and hunt submission attempts, all while losing the round on bottom.

Against Ortega, who is arguably the best grappler in the division and has never been submitted, that would not be a smart idea.

Prediction: Ortega by decision

Best bet: Brian Ortega money line (+125)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.