Betsided

UFC 303: Mayra Bueno Silva vs. Macy Chiasson Prediction, Pick and Odds

Sell high on the recent title challenger against a surging contender

By Jaren Kawada

May 7, 2022; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Macy Chiasson reacts following the match against Norma Dumont during UFC 274 at Footprint Center. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
May 7, 2022; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Macy Chiasson reacts following the match against Norma Dumont during UFC 274 at Footprint Center. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports / Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
facebooktwitterreddit

Five months after failing to become the UFC women's bantamweight champion, Mayra Bueno Silva will return against Macy Chiasson on the pay-per-view main card at UFC 303.

Silva (10-3-1 with one no-contest, 5-3-1 with one no-contest in UFC) was favored to become the heir to Amanda Nunes as the women's 135-pound champion at UFC 297 but was ultimately bested by Raquel Pennington. The loss was her first in the division, dropping her record to 3-1 with her win over Holly Holm at UFC Vegas 77 overturned to a no-contest.

Chiasson (9-3, 7-3 in UFC) returned from a lengthy absence at UFC Vegas 88 with a dominant submission win over Pannie Kianzad. While not on a win streak, the performance was impressive enough to vault her into title contention as the potential next challenger with a win over Silva on June 29.

Silva and Chiasson will be the lone female bout on the main card of UFC 303, expected to walk out at roughly 10:30 p.m. ET / 7:30 p.m. ET.

Track Jaren Kawada's daily picks and betting record on BetStamp here.

Mayra Bueno Silva vs. Macy Chiasson odds and round total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Moneyline:

  • Mayra Bueno Silva -102
  • Macy Chiasson -118

Total Rounds:

  • OVER 2.5 (-195)
  • UNDER 2.5 (+150)

Mayra Bueno Silva vs. Macy Chiasson best bet

Perhaps the pressure got to Silva at UFC 297 but she had a round and a half of fight in her before she completely folded. She claimed after the fight that Raquel Pennington burst her eardrum open but her lack of cardio and adjustment ability were concerning.

Once they face off on Friday, the size difference between the two will be clear as day. Chiasson, who has previously competed at featherweight, will be five inches taller and have a massive six-inch reach advantage. Silva moved up from flyweight in 2022 and has not looked undersized at 135 pounds but has never faced anyone as large as Chiasson.

As with all her fights, Silva will want this fight down immediately. She profiles as the slightly better grappler but Chiasson, who owns a 68 percent takedown defense, has only been submitted once in her career to the current champion Pennington.

Including the loss to Pennington, Chiasson has never been thoroughly out-grappled in a fight. She was fighting Pennington step-for-step before falling into a guillotine choke and was well on her way to beating Irene Aldana in her most recent defeat before a semi-fluky upkick landed perfectly on her liver.

If this fight stays standing, Silva does not have the creativity with her striking to get past the enormous size difference. Since moving up to bantamweight, Silva has beat just one opponent with her striking — Yanan Wu — who went 1-5 in the promotion before being released.

Chiasson opened as an underdog, which is where I took her, but there is still a lot of value on her price as a dead-even pick 'em. Despite over 70 percent of public money coming in on 'Sheetara' as a favorite, the line has closed in. Silva has all the name value as the former title challenger but does not line up well in this matchup.

Prediction: Chiasson by decision

Best bet: Macy Chiasson money line (-106)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Home/UFC Picks & Predictions