UFC 304: Christian Leroy Duncan vs. Gregory Rodrigues Prediction, Pick and Odds

Christian Leroy Duncan and Gregory Rodrigues will aim to win the Fight of the Night bonus at UFC 304 when they meet in the cage as the third fight of the main card.

Duncan (10-1, 3-1 in UFC) has been a fan favorite in the United Kingdom for a while but has only been in the UFC since March 2023. His brief UFC tenure has been successful thus far with consecutive knockout wins over Denis Tiuliulin and Claudio Ribeiro following the first loss of his career against Armen Petrosyan.

Rodrigues (15-5, 6-2 in UFC) has been on the borderline of the middleweight rankings since joining the UFC in 2021 with five knockout wins in his eight fights in the promotion. Rodrigues transitioned to MMA as a Brazilian jiu-jitsu world champion but has found most of his success with his boxing and power that led him to the biggest win of his career over divisional veteran Brad Tavares at UFC Vegas 86.

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Christian Leroy Duncan vs. Gregory Rodrigues odds and round total

Odds listed below are via DraftKings Sportsbook

Moneyline:

• Christian Leroy Duncan -130
• Gregory Rodrigues +110

Total Rounds:

• 1.5 (Over -154/Under +120)

Christian Leroy Duncan vs. Gregory Rodrigues best bet

With the two records these fighters own, Duncan looks like the brighter prospect and certainly can be but the quality of competition for both men is vastly different. While Duncan has been impressive in the UFC, he won his debut by injury TKO and knocked out two of the lowest-ranked fighters in the division in his two most recent fights.

Rodrigues is not someone who will likely become a champion but has seen almost everything an unranked middleweight could experience. Despite his credentialed grappling background he prefers to strike and ignite chaos which has led to some of his losses but has also melted some of the best fighters in the division outside of the top 15. Brad Tavares is no longer in his prime but has only lost to three fighters to never see a UFC ranking, with Rodrigues being one of them.

Duncan is a creative and dangerous striker but has set up most of his wins with unorthodox attacks. Of his eight knockout wins, three were set up with spinning strikes with another coming by flying knee. That could potentially happen again but Rodrigues has tended to fall victim to applying pressure without much defensive mechanics and getting hit by well-timed counterstrikes.

Even though Rodrigues is primarily a boxer who struggles to find his rhythm in setting up takedowns, if he gets the fight down it will be entirely his to lose. The difference in the striking battle will be marginal but the talent gap on the ground will be wide.

Even in his losses, Rodrigues has had moments in all of his fights where he was ahead. To pick up what would be the best win of his career, Duncan will likely have to weather a strong storm and has never faced the type of resistance Rodrigues will give him.

Prediction: Rodrigues by KO/TKO in round two

Best bet: Gregory Rodrigues money line (+125)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.