UFC 304 Co-Main Event: Tom Aspinall vs. Curtis Blaydes 2 Prediction, Pick and Odds

For the first time since 2013, an interim title will be defended in the UFC when Tom Aspinall puts his belt on the line in a rematch with Curtis Blaydes in the co-main event of UFC 304.

Aspinall (14-3, 7-1 in UFC) won the interim heavyweight championship on short notice at UFC 295 with a knockout win over Sergei Pavlovich. In eight fights in the Octagon, Aspinall owns a 7-1 record with the one loss coming as the result of a torn MCL he suffered in the cage almost exactly two years before UFC 304.

Blaydes (18-4 with one no-contest, 13-4 with one no-contest in UFC) is the only fighter to technically own a win over Aspinall in the UFC from their main event bout in July 2022. Since their initial meeting, Blaydes suffered a first-round knockout loss to Pavlovich but rebounded with a TKO victory over Jailton Almeida at UFC 299.

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Tom Aspinall vs. Curtis Blaydes Odds and Total

Moneyline

• Blaydes: +300
• Aspinall: -380

Total: 1.5 (Over +140/Under -180)

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Tom Aspinall vs. Curtis Blaydes Prediction and Pick

If there is one solid path to victory in this fight for Blaydes, it is to put Aspinall on his back. With a 5.72 takedown average in the UFC, Blaydes is arguably the best wrestler the heavyweight division has ever seen with suffocating top pressure and being beneath an elite wrestler is a component of Aspinall's game that has not been seen yet.

But despite his obvious strength, Blaydes has not landed a takedown in his last four fights, all of which have ended early. He tends to strike early in fights and use his takedowns later as it progresses rather than immediately shoot off the gun. His wrestling usage has translated directly to the duration of his fights, as Blaydes landed three or more takedowns in four of the five times he went to a decision in the UFC.

As the owner of the shortest average fight time in UFC history, Aspinall has never been taken down and owns a 100% takedown defense. Granted, he has never faced as strong a wrestler as Blaydes, but is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt while being arguably the most athletic heavyweight to ever grace the Octagon.

Like most other heavyweights, Blaydes thrives against bigger, plodding opponents who cannot match his athleticism. Aspinall is not that. Officially, the UFC credits Aspinall with being hit by only 48 total significant strikes through his eight UFC appearances, including just once by Sergei Pavlovich in his last outing.

Despite Aspinall's historic defensive statistics, Blaydes is lined at 18.5 significant strikes by DraftKings. He has cleared this line in 14 of his 18 UFC fights but has not done so in each of his last three. Aspinall has allowed 19 or more significant strikes just once in his UFC career in the only fight of his that went into the second round.

Prediction: Aspinall by KO/TKO in round two

Best bet: Curtis Blaydes Under 18.5 Significant Strikes (-120)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.