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UFC Saudi Arabia: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Alexander Volkov Prediction, Pick and Odds

Expect a longer fight than usual between two familiar opponents

By Jaren Kawada

Jul 30, 2022; Dallas, TX, USA; Sergei Pavlovich (blue gloves) reacts after defeating Derrick Lewis (not pictured) in a heavyweight bout during UFC 277 at the American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
Jul 30, 2022; Dallas, TX, USA; Sergei Pavlovich (blue gloves) reacts after defeating Derrick Lewis (not pictured) in a heavyweight bout during UFC 277 at the American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports / Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
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As two Russian heavyweights, Sergei Pavlovich and Alexander Volkov have trained with each other on multiple occasions in the past but will face each other in the Octagon as the co-main event of UFC Saudi Arabia.

Pavlovich (18-2, 6-2 in UFC) was widely seen as the scariest heavyweight in the UFC before his loss to Tom Aspinall at UFC 295 with six straight first-round knockouts leading into his first promotional title shot. With none of his fights in the Octagon leaving the first round, Pavlovich is second all-time in the UFC in shortest average fight time at just 2:13.

Volkov (37-10, 11-4 in UFC) has been with the UFC since 2016 but has never challenged for heavyweight gold in the Octagon. However, with a submission win over Tai Tuivasa at UFC 293, Volkov's current three-fight win streak is his best since winning his first four fights in the promotion.

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Sergei Pavlovich vs. Alexander Volkov odds and round total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Moneyline:

  • Sergei Pavlovich -230
  • Alexander Volkov +190

Total rounds:

  • 1.5 (Over +124/Under -160)

Sergei Pavlovich vs. Alexander Volkov best bet

Whenever Pavlovich fights, the public will immediately jump on the under and he has delivered in every UFC fight so far. However, UFC Saudi Arabia may be different as he faces a former teammate on the heels of his first knockout loss.

Pavlovich previously lost by TKO to Alistair Overeem in his debut but in a different way than how Tom Aspinall finished him. Overeem dominated him with ground-and-pound but Aspinall knocked him unconscious on the feet. Devastating knockout artists who get the first taste of their own medicine almost always come out timid in their next fight and some are never the same again.

Pavlovich also had the luxury of facing Marcelo Golm after suffering the first loss of his career. That was an intended tune-up fight, and Volkov is anything but that.

Fighters who face current or former teammates have almost exclusively seen their fight last longer with most going the distance. UFC 270 was one of the most notable examples at heavyweight, as Francis Ngannou faced former teammate Ciryl Gane and went to a five-round decision.

While Pavlovich has only seen his fights end in round one, Volkov is not the traditional heavyweight with one-punch knockout power. Volkov has seen 10 of his 15 UFC fights (67 percent) go over the 1.5-round mark and has only been knocked out twice in his career. One of those was a late finish from UFC all-time knockout leader Derrick Lewis and the other was in 2013.

Betting the over on a Pavlovich fight is never going to be easy but in this case, it is worth the plus-money value. Consider the fight going the distance (+500) as a longshot play.

Prediction: Pavlovich by decision

Best bet: Over 1.5 rounds (+115)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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