UFC 304: Muhammad Mokaev vs. Manel Kape Prediction, Pick and Odds

Bad blood will be settled in the Octagon early on at UFC 304 when flyweights Muhammad Mokaev and Manel Kape meet each other with a potential title fight on the line.

Mokaev (12-0 with one no-contest, 6-0 in UFC) is the only undefeated ranked fighter in the UFC flyweight division. At just 23 years old, Mokaev has already climbed to No. 6 in the top 15, last breaking into the top 10 with a decision win over Alex Perez at UFC Vegas 87.

Kape (19-6, 4-2 in UFC) has been on a four-fight win streak since beginning his UFC career at 0-2. Since UFC 265, Kape has not lost, last picking up a decision win over Felipe dos Santos at UFC 293. Despite being touted as a futuere champion, Kape has yet to find his way into a title fight largely due to poor luck in his matchmaking with seven canceled fights in the past three years.

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Muhammad Mokaev vs. Manel Kape Odds and Total

Moneyline

• Mokaev: -170
• Kape: +142

Total: 2.5 (Over -210/Under +160)

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Muhammad Mokaev vs. Manel Kape Prediction and Pick

It is not surprising to see Mokaev billed as the favorite as the undefeated prospect fighting in his home country but this fight is a huge step up from his previous wins over Alex Perez and Tim Elliott.

While we have seen Kape fight in many different ways before, there is no secret to what Mokaev wants to do. Averaging 5.75 takedowns per 15 minutes, Mokaev is a pure wrestler who has landed three or more takedowns in all of his UFC fights aside from his 58-second debut win over Cody Durden. In his six fights, Mokaev has attempted 67 total takedowns including shooting 20 times against Perez.

Mokaev is not the most accurate wrestler with just a 41 percent takedown accuracy but has shown an ability to chain his attempts together while almost entirely avoiding striking exchanges. Kape has defended 77 percent of takedowns shot on him in the UFC but has never had more than nine attempted on him in a single fight.

Regardless, while Kape's striking is his bread and butter, his grappling game is often underrated. He has been submitted just twice in his career despite nearly all of his opponents looking to take him down. He has not been submitted since Kyoji Horiguchi caught him with an arm triangle choke in 2017.

Kape can get beat on the ground, but the way fighters have bested him in the past is not the way Mokaev makes his approach. At this point in his career, Mokaev is fairly limited in his skill set as a true wrestler who likes to shoot from a distance. Kape's vision and footwork have often proven effective against that style. Horiguchi, a primary kickboxer, used his striking to pull Kape into his shot as a perfectly timed counter.

On the feet, Kape is levels above Mokaev with his defensive striking and power. He often gets too complacent while looking to counter but has been out-struck just once in the UFC thus far by the current champion Alexandre Pantoja. So long as he can avoid falling into the trap of Mokaev's game plan, his defensive ability and physicality should be too much for the 23-year-old at this stage of his career.

Prediction: Kape by decision

PICK: Manel Kape money line (+135)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.