UFC 305: Casey O'Neill vs. Luana Santos Prediction, Pick and Odds

In her attempt to end a two-fight losing streak, 'King' Casey O'Neill will face short-notice replacement and rising star Luana Santos on the prelims of UFC 305.

O'Neill (9-2, 4-2 in UFC) was once considered the budding star of the women's flyweight division but fell short in her first big fight against Jennifer Maia at UFC 286. Still just 26, O'Neill was given a chance to rebound against Ariane Lipski da Silva at UFC 296 but was upset once again, losing by armbar in the second round.

Santos (8-1, 3-0 in UFC) accepted the fight on short notice as a replacement for Tereza Bleda with a chance to enter the rankings in just her fourth UFC fight. So far, Santos has been a perfect 3-0 in the UFC with two finishes, last submitting Mariya Agapova at UFC Denver.

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Casey O'Neill vs. Luana Santos odds and round total

Moneyline

• Casey O'Neill: +120
• Luana Santos: -142

Total: 2.5 (Over -220/Under +170)

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Casey O'Neill vs. Luana Santos best bet

Santos has been excellent in the UFC so far and delivered for us at UFC Denver but now presents the perfect opportunity to buy low on O'Neill, whose value to oddsmakers will never be lower.

In her two recent losses, O'Neill has not looked good. She has not won a fight since 2022 and has gotten away from being the cardio pressure fighter that she was before. Even still, O'Neill was a 2-1 favorite to beat a top 10 fighter just 17 months ago and should not be an underdog to Santos.

If Santos can get O'Neill down and in a compromised position, she will be in her best position to succeed. But with a 67 percent takedown defense, O'Neill has never been held down for more than two minutes and is a competent grappler in her own right. Her loss to Lipski da Silva was the result of a "club and sub" and not a traditional grappling attack. Otherwise, O'Neill has never allowed herself to be put in a bad position on the ground.

While the fighters are striking, O'Neill will be the substantially better kickboxer, averaging an absurd 8.41 significant strikes per minute. Santos has yet to face a competent striker in the UFC and is prone to getting frantic during high-pressure exchanges. Should the fight get extended, O'Neill will also have the cardio advantage with Santos typically slowing down in her previous fights that got past the midway point.

It is worth noting that while O'Neill was born in Scotland, she is of Australian descent and moved to the country when she was young. The crowd will be behind her, something she has not had often, while Santos will be in enemy territory for the first time in her career.

Prediction: O'Neill by decision

Best bet: Casey O'Neill money line (+135)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.