UFC 305: Kai Kara-France vs. Steve Erceg Prediction, Pick and Odds

As the lone fighter on the card from Perth, Steve Erceg will be the hometown fighter in the UFC 305 co-main event when he takes on Auckland native Kai Kara-France.

Kara-France (24-11 with one no-contest, 7-4 in UFC) is the higher-ranked fighter of the two but has not fought in over a year since losing to Amir Albazi by split decision at UFC Vegas 74. Kara-France is at risk of a potential three-fight losing streak as an underdog to Erceg, going without a win since knocking off Askar Askarov in March 2022.

Erceg (12-2, 3-1 in UFC) was the story of the week just three months ago when he challenged Alexandre Pantoja for the UFC flyweight title at UFC 302. While he lost the fight by unanimous decision, 'Astroboy' impressed in the fight, particularly with it being just his fourth UFC fight. The loss ended an 11-fight win streak that he had been on since losing his second professional fight in 2017.

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Kai Kara-France vs. Steve Erceg Odds and Total

Moneyline

• Kai Kara-France: +136
• Steve Erceg: -162

Total: 2.5 (Over -270/Under +200)

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Kai Kara-France vs. Steve Erceg Best Bet

Even though he has gained the favor of MMA fans in just four UFC fights, Erceg has not gotten to show off his true form yet as an elite grappler with 50 percent of his wins by submission. The matchups were just never right for him, with three of his four opponents having never been submitted in their careers.

However, against Kara-France, Erceg is in the best position to truly show out in front of his home crowd. Not only has Kara-France been submitted three times career but the more eye-opening stat is the gaudy nine submission attempts he has relented in his 11 UFC fights. Kara-France has only been tapped once in the Octagon by Brandon Royval but has been in incredibly compromisable positions in nearly every fight.

When it comes to getting the fight down, Erceg has not been efficient in the UFC, completing just 26 percent of his takedown attempts. That does not bode well on paper against Kara-France's 88 percent takedown defense. But Erceg has managed to get three of his four UFC opponents down at least once, with the only fighter he did not take down being Matt Schnell, whom he knocked out 26 seconds into the second round.

Conversely, only two fighters — Brandon Moreno and Tyson Nam — have not been able to take Kara-France down in the UFC who attempted one or more takedowns. Once down, Kara-France is not an incompetent grappler but often gives up dominant positions to attempt a return to his feet, which many of his opponents have taken advantage of.

In the striking department, this fight should be fairly even with Erceg being as crisp of a boxer as anyone in the flyweight division. He will also be the bigger fighter with a four-inch height advantage. Erceg was being promoted as a knockout artist ahead of his title fight but is truly a grappler at heart and with the odds on his submission prop being far too wide, this is an excellent buy-low spot.

Prediction: Erceg by submission in round three

Best bet: Steve Erceg by submission (+650)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.