UFC 305: Tai Tuivasa vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik Prediction, Pick and Odds

Fighting in his home county for his sixth time in the UFC, Tai Tuivasa will look to end a four-fight losing streak against Jairzinho Rozenstruik at UFC 305.

Rozenstruik (14-5, 8-5 in UFC) burst onto the scene in the UFC as a 10-0 former kickboxer but faltered once he reached the top of the division and has gone just 4-5 in his last nine fights. However, though he has a reputation as a power-punching brawler, Rozenstruik implemented a significantly more patient and methodical game plan in his last fight to pick apart Shamil Gaziev.

Tuivasa (14-7, 8-7 in UFC) will always be a fan favorite no matter what happens to him but is on the roughest stretch of his career, losing four straight entering Aug. 17. Like Rozenstruik, Tuivasa is a brawler who loves to get into striking affairs but is different in the fact that he almost always throws technique out the window in favor of getting into a street fight-like exchange.

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Tai Tuivasa vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik odds and round total

Moneyline

• Jairzinho Rozenstruik: -238
• Tai Tuivasa: +195

Total: 1.5 (Over +145/Under -188)

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Tai Tuivasa vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik best bet

If Tuivasa has anything left in him, it has to come out now. This is the perfect matchup he wants against a striker who will not take him down and will engage in the type of fight he desires.

Even though Rozenstruik came out with a different approach against Shamil Gaziev, it is hard to see him doing the same against Tuivasa. The way he fought Gaziev was perfect for the fight that it was, as Rozenstruik exploited the Russian's lack of striking and cardio. Tuivasa will get in his face and not let him use the same patient strategy.

However, Tuivasa cannot blitz Rozenstruik the same way he did against Marcin Tybura in his last fight before he got submitted. Riding a four-fight losing streak, Tuivasa does not have much patience in him but will almost certainly be even the slightest bit more cautious considering Rozenstruik has the power to put him out.

DraftKings currently has Tuivasa's significant strike prop at 17.5, a particularly low number for him historically. As a rare high-volume heavyweight striker, Tuivasa has cleared this line in 10 of his 15 UFC fights — 67 percent — while Rozenstruik's opponents have done so in seven of his 13 fights.

An early finish is the clear obstacle to this prop but while both have knockout power, Rozenstruik has not had a first-round knockout since 2022 and Tuivasa has not done so since 2021. Neither has been knocked out in the first round since 2022.

Prediction: Tuivasa by KO/TKO in round two

Best bet: Tai Tuivasa Over 17.5 Significant Strikes

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.