UFC Abu Dhabi: Cory Sandhagen vs. Umar Nurmagomedov Prediction, Pick and Odds

As the unofficial No. 1 contender fight of the UFC bantamweight division, former interim title challenger Cory Sandhagen will take on rising undefeated prospect Umar Nurmagomedov in the main event of UFC Abu Dhabi.

Sandhagen (17-4, 10-3 in UFC) has not fought in nearly one full year with the time spent recovering from a torn tricep he suffered in his most recent win over Rob Font. Since losing to Petr Yan on short notice for the interim bantamweight championship at UFC 267, Sandhagen has gone on a three-fight win streak to put him back into the title picture.

Cornered by his legendary cousin Khabib Nurmagomedov, Umar Nurmagomedov (17-0, 5-0 in UFC) has lived up to the hype of his family name by effectively dominating all 17 of his professional opponents entering UFC Abu Dhabi. Still without a win over a ranked opponent, Nurmagomedov rose to No. 10 in the divisional rankings with his impressive win over Bekzat Almakhan at UFC Vegas 87.

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Cory Sandhagen vs. Umar Nurmagomedov Odds and Round Total

Moneyline

• Sandhagen: +260
• Umar Nurmagomedov: -325

Total: 4.5 (Over -140/Under +110)

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Cory Sandhagen vs. Umar Nurmagomedov Prediction and Pick

Undefeated records typically get juiced in the UFC and a similar course of action from oddsmakers is happening with Nurmagomedov. From everything he has showed, Nurmagomedov is a legit contender and has the skills to potentially already be the best bantamweight in the world but may be facing his toughest style matchup with Sandhagen.

Sandhagen does not have a grappling base but has never struggled in that department outside of his lone submission loss to Aljamain Sterling in 2020. Since then, he has showed significant improvement in that part of his game. Even before the loss to Sterling, Sandhagen has never been held down for more than 2:11 in a single fight, a record currently held by Raphael Assuncao from their fight in 2019.

Aside from his wrestling, Nurmagomedov has high-level striking to match his ground game primarily behind the speed and flexibility he has with kicks. That style is not suited to work well against Sandhagen who is one of the tallest bantamweights at 5-foot-11 and owns a stellar 58 percent striking defense in his UFC career.

When the fight is on the feet, Sandhagen figures to have a significant edge in power with seven career knockout wins. If there is one hole in Nurmagomedov's game that has surfaced thus far, it is his defensive striking and chin strength, having been hurt on several occasions in the UFC despite his limited experience and knocked down in his last fight by Bekzat Almakhan in the first exchange.

With too many unknowns on the side of Nurmagomedov, one has to believe there is a reason Sandhagen wants this matchup with a title shot well within his reach. Nurmagomedov may be the future of this division but this might be a touch too early for him in his career.

Prediction: Sandhagen by KO/TKO in round four

Best bet: Cory Sandhagen money line (+245)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.