UFC Abu Dhabi: Marlon Vera vs. Deiveson Figueiredo Prediction, Pick and Odds

Two of the biggest stars in the UFC bantamweight division will collide at UFC Abu Dhabi when recent title challenger Marlon Vera faces former flyweight champion Deiveson Figueiredo.

Vera (23-9-1, 15-8 in UFC) is already one of the most decorated fighters in the division's history despite being just 31 years old. Although he is now just 1-2 in his last three fights, 'Chito' is coming off the biggest fight of his career, a title fight loss to current champion Sean O'Malley at UFC 299.

Figueiredo (23-3-1, 12-3-1 in UFC) is widely recognized for his work in the 125-pound division as the two-time UFC flyweight champion. Figueiredo moved up to bantamweight in 2023 and has gone 2-0 in his new weight class with dominant wins over Rob Font and Cody Garbrandt.

Track Jaren Kawada's daily picks and betting record on BetStamp here.

Marlon Vera vs. Deiveson Figueiredo odds and round total

All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Moneyline:

• Marlon Vera +120
• Deiveson Figueiredo -142

Total:

• 2.5 (Over -298/Under +220)

Marlon Vera vs. Deiveson Figueiredo best bet

Recency bias affects betting lines across most sports but none more prominently than MMA. This fight may prove to be an example of that once it is over with Figueiredo winning his first two bantamweights and Vera coming off a brutal loss to Sean O'Malley.

Yet, recent performances aside, Figueiredo will have a tough time finding success against Vera. The Ecuadorian was picked apart by O'Malley for 25 minutes but historically has been one of the most defensively sound and durable strikers in UFC history, having never been knocked down in his career or finished in his 33 fights. O'Malley even caught him with one of the cleanest knees a fighter has ever taken but could not get him to fold.

With 11 knockdowns in his 16 UFC fights, a lot of Figueiredo's striking is predicated on his power without a lot of volume to back it up. The former champion's power may not have translated as well since moving up to bantamweight either with zero knockdowns in either of his last two fights. The results come from a small sample size but it would be difficult to imagine Figueiredo knocking down Vera after failing to do so against Rob Font and Cody Garbrandt.

Figueiredo is an equally aggressive grappler as he is a striker with 22 total submission attempts in the UFC but Vera has again yet to be submitted in his career while defending 70 percent of opponent takedowns.

Size may also play a factor with Vera coming in as the taller fighter by three inches with a two-inch reach advantage. Vera has historically fared well against smaller opponents, including recent wins over Pedro Munhoz and Frankie Edgar.

Prediction: Vera by decision

Best bet: Marlon Vera money line (+120)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.