UFC Denver: Drew Dober vs. Jean Silva Prediction, Pick and Odds

Looking to join an elite group of fighters in a short-notice opportunity, Jean Silva will be stepping in to face Drew Dober at UFC Denver on July 13 just two weeks after picking up his last win at UFC 303.

Silva (13-2, 2-0 in UFC) has passed every test he has been given in the Octagon with flying colors, most recently becoming the first fighter to knock out Charles Jourdain on the prelims of UFC 303. The win extended his win streak to 10, being undefeated since his fifth professional fight.

Dober (27-13 with one no-contest, 13-7 with one no-contest in UFC) has been with the promotion for much longer than Silva, entering his 21st fight in the Octagon. Already tying Dustin Poirier with the most knockouts in the UFC lightweight division, Dober will look to re-enter the divisional rankings with a statement win after losing a back-and-forth battle to Renato Moicano at UFC Vegas 85.

Track Jaren Kawada's daily picks and betting record on BetStamp here.

Drew Dober vs. Jean Silva odds and round total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Moneyline:

• Drew Dober -102
• Jean Silva -118

Total Rounds:

• 1.5 (Over -130/Under +100)

Drew Dober vs. Jean Silva best bet

The hype in this fight has been all around Silva with his quest to make history and impressive highlight reel in the Octagon despite just making his UFC debut in January. But this is not the right situation for him and against another opponent in a different location, he may have been better suited to succeed.

The reality of the situation is Silva will be turning around in two weeks to move up a weight class in the altitude of Denver against the man who owns the most knockouts in the UFC lightweight division. He took no damage in the fight with Jourdain but still missed weight for the first time in his career, suggesting his weight cut was imperfect, and now has to go through the process again on short notice while acclimating to the mile-high atmosphere.

Dober, on top of being an elite striker, has historically fared well against short-notice opponents. Since debuting with the UFC, the veteran is 4-0 in fights when his opponent accepts the call as a replacement for his original matchup.

In the fight itself, Silva is likely to bring the same approach he has shown in his two previous UFC fights without much time to prepare. With 77 percent of his wins by knockout, the Brazilian is much more of a striker than a grappler, fitting in to the style of fight Dober desires.

In nine UFC losses, Dober has been submitted four times and taken down in all but two of them. Only one man, Matt Frevola, has truly been able to out-brawl Dober on the feet. Despite being 35 years old, Dober has still only been knocked down twice in 20 UFC fights and still possessed his elite athleticism, speed and strength in his last fight in February.

As a resident of Denver training with the Elevation Fight Team, Dober is already acclimated to the altitude of the city, unlike Silva. Silva's hometown of Sāo Paulo is only at half the altitude of Denver.

It remains puzzling why most bettors are trusting the hype of Silva and fading Dober in his hometown against a short-notice opponent. Dober should not be the underdog and needs to be taken on any book where he is listed at plus money.

Prediction: Dober by KO/TKO in round two

Best bet: Drew Dober money line (+100)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.