UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Muhammad Predictions and Best Bets (How to Bet April 16th UFC Card)

Aug 7, 2021; Houston, Texas, USA; Michael Chiesa (red gloves) fights Vicente Luque (blue gloves)
Aug 7, 2021; Houston, Texas, USA; Michael Chiesa (red gloves) fights Vicente Luque (blue gloves) / Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Following an incredible pay-per-view last weekend, the UFC will look to follow up UFC 273 with a strong Fight Night card, highlighted by two Welterweight contenders.

Vicente Luque and Belal Muhammad will fight for the second time and attempt to climb the Welterweight ladder with a strong Main Event performance. There are 13 other fights at the UFC Apex on Saturday night, so let's waste no time and get to the bets.

All my plays will be posted on betstamp, which you can check out here.

Odds courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook

2022 Best Bets Record: 15-15, +2.61 Units

Vicente Luque (-180) vs. Belal Muhammad (+150)

These two met all the way back in 2016 with Luque finishing Muhammad in the first round by knock out. Ultimately, I see Muhammad suffering a similar fate on Saturday night.

I believe that Muhammad is being overrated after his win over Stephen Thompson, who is a high level fighter, but doesn't have the same power that Luque has. 'The Silent Assassin' has one of the most powerful hands in the Welterweight class and has a significant striking advantage against his opponent. Luque averages more than 1 strike per minute and is 10% more accurate when he fires, per UFCStats.com. 19 of his 21 wins have come via finish.

While Muhammad is a capable grappling game and can force this fight to the cage, I think Luque is far more dangerous and outclasses the Chicago native on his way up the division. He has a fine 64% takedown defense, but is a far more dangerous submission threat (8 wins via submission while Muhammad has 1).

I never like laying the juice on fighters, but I think this line should be closer to -225 so I'll lay it with Luque at -180, but also play him to win inside the distance.

PICK: Luque ML (-180) 2U, Luque Inside the Distance at + money

William Knight (+150) vs. Devin Clark (-175)

As I previewed earlier this week on BetSided

The weight class is very important to the bet here. Knight missed his Light Heavyweight weight by 12 pounds last time out, a UFC record, coming in at 218 pounds. While his fight still went on as planned (he lost), Knight proved that it is tough for him to get down to 205. Knight mentioned after the weight cut just that and considering he took that fight on short notice, it was too difficult for him to make it on the scales.

Now, he is fighting at a weight class he has fought at before and closer to his walk around weight. Meanwhile, Clark is typically fighting at Light Heavyweight and has experience down a weight class at Middleweight. Now, he is making the jump to Heavyweight for this bout.

I see an edge here to back Knight as an underdog at a better weight class for him. Clark may have more UFC fights on his ledger, but this is the first time he is at Heavyweight. Knight has been able to push fights against the cage before and control grappling exchanges, if he is able to get this to the ground, I expect "Knightmare" to take rounds with ease.

Undersized a bit, Knight stands just 5'10" but boasts a 73" reach, this matchup will suit him nicely given that Clark is 6'0" and has a 75" reach. For example, Knight's last matchup was against Maxim Grishin, who is 6'3" with a 78" reach. I think this is the perfect storm to take a shot on the underdog Knight at a weight he may be more comfortable at long term.

PICK: Knight +150

Pat Sabatini (-495) vs. T.J. Laramie (+365)

While I like Sabatini a lot to win this bout, that's indicated in the massive line. I need to find ways to get down on him against Larmie, who is going to struggle to make up the 4" reach disadvantage.

Sabatini will be the aggressor from the opening bell, with a forceful grappling game that has led to 10 of his 16 wins coming from submission. At 31, Sabatini has really begun to come into his own, winning his last 5 fights, and I expect his Canadian opponent to struggle once this fight hits the ground.

In his last fight against noted submission artist Darrick Minner, Laramie was taken down once and forced to tap out in the first round. While Sabatini isn't as dangerous as Minner, I expect him to get this one to the mat and find a finish once there. He has a cardio and strength advantage to control this fight the entire time.

I see the Bristol, Pennsylvania native finishing this one before the judges scorecards comes into play so I'll play under 2.5 at plus money which is available at WynnBET, but also like Sabatini to win inside the distance if that price is better.

PICK: UNDER 2.5 (+105)

Check out this week's Jab, Cross, Hook, which previews Bellator 277 and the latest happenings in the UFC as well as a full UFC Fight Night preview!