UFC St. Louis: Tabatha Ricci vs. Tecia Pennington Prediction, Pick and Odds

After over two years away from the Octagon, Tecia Pennington — formerly known as Tecia Torres — will return against Tabatha Ricci at UFC St. Louis.

As the no. 11 ranked contender, Ricci (9-2, 4-2 in UFC) lost at strawweight for the first time of her career at UFC 295 against Loopy Godinez. Before the loss, Ricci had won four straight over Gillian Robertson, Polyana Viana, Jessica Penne and Maria Oliveira.

Pennington (13-6, 9-6 in UFC) will be fighting for the first time with her new name after marrying UFC bantamweight champion Raquel Pennington three months after her last fight against Mackenzie Dern. In her time away from the cage, Pennington gave birth to their first daughter almost a year after their wedding in June 2023. Pennington's last fight, a split decision loss to Dern, ended a three-fight win streak.

Both fighters are coming off semi-controversial split decision losses, but the time away from the Octagon for Pennington will be the main story throughout fight week. Pennington has never fought for a UFC title but has long been a staple of the top 10 and will look to fend off yet another young contender in the 29-year-old Ricci.

Track Jaren Kawada's daily picks and betting record on BetStamp here.

Tabatha Ricci vs. Tecia Pennington odds and round total

Tabatha Ricci vs. Tecia Pennington best bet

Unfortunately, the main story of this fight will once again be an aging female fighter coming off a lengthy layoff after giving birth. It is the same breakdown we had for the Norma Dumont vs. Germaine de Randamie fight in April and as unfair as it is, fighters are just never the same coming back after pregnancy.

Once Pennington steps into the cage on May 11, she will face the same uphill battle several others have failed at before. It has been over two years since her last fight and nearly three years since her last win.

Now, after enduring the physical and mental mountain that was childbirth, Pennington is going to face arguably the strongest and most athletic fighter in the strawweight division. Ricci consistently pushes a pace that few have been able to match thus far, averaging 4.41 significant strikes per minute and 3.39 takedowns per 15 minutes.

For many women in Pennington's position, simply making it through the first camp and back into the fight is a win. Fighters who came back from giving birth in 2024 are 0-2 heading into UFC St. Louis.

When Ricci wins, it has tended to be by decision. Five of her nine career wins are by decision (56 percent), including three of her four in the UFC. Pennington, likewise, has never been finished in her career.

Prediction and best bet: Tabatha Ricci by decision (+120)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.