UFC St. Louis: Veronica Hardy vs. JJ Aldrich Prediction, Pick and Odds

On May 11, the UFC will be venturing into St. Louis for the first time since 2014 and will get the night started with a women's flyweight bout between Veronica Hardy and JJ Aldrich.

Hardy (8-4-1, 3-4 in UFC) is the favorite heading into the fight while looking to extend her current win streak to three. Since coming out of "retirement" and legally changing her name after marriage, Hardy has gone 2-0 with wins over Juliana Miller and Jamey-Lyn Horth.

Aldrich (13-6, 9-5 in UFC) has been in the UFC since 2016 but has never risen to title contention in her eight years with the promotion. With recent wins over Montana De La Rosa and Liang Na, a win on May 11 would also put Aldrich on a three-fight win streak.

With the lines quickly moving as fight night approaches, get on this early line before the value diminishes!

Track Jaren Kawada's daily picks and betting record on BetStamp here.

Veronica Hardy vs. JJ Aldrich odds and round total

Veronica Hardy vs. JJ Aldrich best bet

The wrong fighter is favored here. This recent resurgence that Hardy has been on has been a nice transformation to see but in the hype of her two recent wins, it is easy to forget that she still owns a losing record in the UFC at 3-4. And while her wins were impressive, beating Juliana Miller and Jamey-Lyn Horth should not make Hardy the favorite over a seasoned veteran like Aldrich.

Aldrich's 13-6 record does not look impressive, but four of her six losses have come against fighters who graced the UFC rankings at some point in their career. Since 2021, Aldrich is 5-2, with her two losses in that frame against current top contenders Erin Blanchfield and Ariane Lipski da Silva.

Against strikers who primarily look to strike with her, Aldrich has found success, going 9-3 in the UFC in fights when she was taken down once or less. Hardy has a Taekwondo and kickboxing background and has succeeded on 41 percent of her attempted takedowns in the Octagon, whilst Aldrich has defended 66 percent of takedowns shot on her.

Hardy's striking is much better than her wrestling but the Venezuelan still averages more significant strikes absorbed per minute than landed. In her UFC career, Hardy averages just 3.27 significant strikes per minute in comparison to Aldrich's 4.05 strikes landed per minute.

Hardy often struggles with a high pace and output, something Aldrich is known to implement.

Despite her 15 fights in the UFC, Aldrich is still just 31. She has settled into a role as a gatekeeper to the top 15 and given the list of names of people who have beaten her, Hardy does not fit into that category. These are the types of fights Aldrich wins. Look for her to end the hype of Hardy.

Prediction: Aldrich by decision

Best bet: JJ Aldrich money line (+130)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.