UFC Vegas 89: Edmen Shahbazyan vs. AJ Dobson Prediction, Pick and Odds (Back this 5-0 betting trend)

As two middleweights looking to rebound from rough stretches, Edmen Shahbazyan and AJ Dobson will meet on the main card of UFC Vegas 89.

A former top 10-ranked fighter, Shahbazyan (12-4, 5-4 in UFC) last lost to Anthony Hernandez at UFC Vegas 73. Shahbazyan picked up a win over Dalcha Lungiambula before the loss that ended a three-fight losing streak. Now 1-4 in his last five fights, the once-undefeated prospect enters as a favorite for the sixth time in the UFC.

Dobson (7-2, 1-2 in UFC) has not had the pedigree of Shahbazyan but comes into the matchup off a win over Tafon Nchukwi at UFC Vegas 78. The loss prevented a 0-3 UFC run for Dobson, whom Jacob Malkoun and Armen Petrosyan bested to begin his promotional tenure.

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Edmen Shahbazyan vs. AJ Dobson odds and round total

Edmen Shahbazyan vs AJ Dobson best bet

Much like our breakdown of Petr Yan in his UFC 299 matchup with Song Yadong, the 1-4 stretch for Shahbazyan is vile on paper but the losses all come to the best in the division. Excluding Derek Brunson, who is now on the PFL roster, all of Shahbazyan's losses come to fighters ranked in the UFC top 15 with two being in the top 10.

Since joining the UFC, Shahbazyan is 5-0 against fighters not currently in the promotional rankings. Needless to say, Dobson is not ranked, comparing similarly to the fighters Shahbazyan previously ran through earlier in his career.

Rankings aside, Dobson does not have the style to defeat Shahbazyan that has been laid out in plain sight. In all four losses, Shahbazyan was thoroughly out-grappled, getting finished by ground-and-pound three times. Dobson has landed five combined takedowns in his last two fights, but largely used them to change the pace of the fight and does not have the strong wrestling proven to be Shahbazyan's kryptonite.

Even with all of his shortcomings in the wrestling department since 2020, Shahbazyan has never been submitted which has been Dobson's preferred method of victory, taking 43 percent of his seven career wins of that method.

With just one career win by decision in 2018, Shahbazyan has been elite at picking opponents apart with his striking before finding a finish, typically early in the fight. Dobson has never been finished but has only fought professionally nine times entering this matchup while never facing an elite finisher. The two fighters he has lost to, Jacob Malkoun and Armen Petrosyan, have never finished an opponent in the UFC.

Prediction: Shahbazyan by knockout in round two

Best bet: Edmen Shahbazyan by KO/TKO or submission (+105)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.