UFC Vegas 94: Amanda Lemos vs. Virna Jandiroba Prediction, Pick and Odds

Without a clear next title challenger in the UFC strawweight division, Amanda Lemos and Virna Jandiroba will meet in a top-five battle at UFC Vegas 94.

Having already challenged for the title at UFC 292, Lemos (14-3-1, 8-3 in UFC) is fresh off a bounce-back win over Mackenzie Dern at UFC 298. Since returning from a USADA suspension in 2019, Lemos has gone 8-2 with her only losses coming against current or former UFC champions.

Jandiroba (20-3, 6-3 in UFC) will enter the contest as the favorite despite being the lower-ranked fighter. Jandiroba has stumbled on multiple occasions in the UFC but is currently on the best run of her time in the Octagon with a three-fight win streak currently capped off with a win over Loopy Godinez at UFC Atlantic City.

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Amanda Lemos vs. Virna Jandiroba odds and round total

The odds listed below are via DraftKings Sportsbook

Moneyline:

• Amanda Lemos +114
• Virna Jandiroba -135

Total Round:

• 2.5 (Over -175/Under +135)

Amanda Lemos vs. Virna Jandiroba best bet

Lemos will be the best fighter Jandiroba has faced to this point but the 36-year-old has the perfect style to give the former title challenger problems. While Lemos is as powerful of a striker in women's MMA, Jandiroba has never been knocked down, knocked out, or finished in her professional career.

Though Jandiroba is a respectable striker, she is arguably the best wrestler in the division with elite chaining ability and control. Lemos has faced just one elite wrestling-based fighter in the UFC — champion Zhang Weili — who took her down six times on seven attempts for 16:07 of total control time.

During her UFC run, Jandiroba has completed just 36 percent of her takedown attempts. That mark is not great but most of her wrestling success is based on chaining takedowns off failed attempts rather than setting up single shots. Lemos' takedown defense at 57 percent has not been stout enough to be confident in with this matchup, particularly against the fence where Jandiroba thrives.

Once down, Jandiroba is slick at finding her way to submissions but has found them hard to come by against top-level grapplers in the UFC. Lemos has only been submitted once in her career, a wild sequence in which she found herself caught in a rare standing arm triangle from Jessica Andrade. Even across 25 minutes, the chances of her tapping out to Jandiroba are not high.

Prediction and best bet: Virna Jandiroba by decision (+250)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.