UFC Vegas 95: Damon Jackson vs. Chepe Marsical Prediction, Pick and Odds

In replace of Dan Ige who stepped in on four hours' notice at UFC 303, Damon Jackson will face rising prospect Jose 'Chepe' Mariscal at UFC Vegas 95.

Jackson (23-6-1 with one no-contest, 6-4-1 with one no-contest in UFC) ended a two-fight losing streak at UFC Vegas 90 with a split-decision win over Alexander Hernandez. Since re-signing with the UFC in 2020, Jackson has gone 6-3 with his only losses to Ilia Topuria, Billy Quarantillo and Ige.

Mariscal (16-6, 3-0 in UFC) has continuously impressed in the UFC thus far, topped with a split-decision win over Morgan Charriere in the fight before Jackson's at UFC Vegas 90. In his three fights in the Octagon, Mariscal has been a part of two memorable fights with a knockout win sandwiched between them.

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Damon Jackson vs. Chepe Mariscal odds and round total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Moneyline

• Damon Jackson +190
• Jose "Chepe" Mariscal -230

Total

• OVER 2.5 Rounds (-130)
• UNDER 2.5 Rounds (+100)

Damon Jackson vs. Chepe Mariscal best bet

Aside from high-level experience, most of the matchup on paper favors Mariscal. Not only is Jackson coming in on fairly short notice but Mariscal fits the bill of the type of fighter 'Action' has typically lost to.

In a 31-fight career, Jackson has won an overwhelming 65 percent of the time by submission, something that has never been done to Mariscal. Meanwhile, nearly all of Jackson's defeats have been by knockout — 67 percent — with Mariscal owning seven of his 16 professional victories by knockout.

However, with Mariscal's money line price being a little high, bettors should turn their attention to the fight props, where DraftKings has his significant strike line at 60.5, a line that Jackson's opponents have gone over just once in his 12 UFC fights. That translates to a 92 percent hit rate on the under.

When Jackson's fights have gone longer, he is typically the fighter in control of his wrestling. When they have not, it is typically a result of him losing early by knockout. As we previously mentioned, Mariscal has never been submitted but has been controlled by wrestlers in the past.

If Mariscal is not being controlled, his pressure is nearly nonstop to the finish line. Mariscal has gone over 60.5 significant strikes in two of his three UFC fights but both of the opponents he fought — Morgan Charriere and Trevor Peek — have never been knocked out in their careers. Jackson does not have that type of durability and will be in trouble if he cannot get takedowns early.

Prediction: Jackson by decision

Best bet: Chepe Mariscal Under 60.5 significant strikes (-115)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.