UFC Vegas 95: Marcin Tybura vs. Serghei Spivac Prediction, Pick and Odds

In a rematch four years in the making, top 10 heavyweight contenders Marcin Tybura and Serghei Spivac headline UFC Vegas 95 on Aug. 10.

Tybura (25-8, 12-7 in UFC) convincingly won the first fight by unanimous decision in a fight that ended up being the first of a five-fight win streak for the Pole that launched him into the rankings. Since reaching the top 10 his success has waned with losses to contenders Alexander Volkov and Tom Aspinall. However, Tybura got back on track in March with a first-round submission win over Tai Tuivasa at UFC Vegas 88.

Spivac (16-4, 7-4 in UFC) has gone 6-2 since the first fight with Tybura to turn himself into a fringe contender. The 'Polar Bear' had a chance to cement himself as a top-three heavyweight in his last fight with Ciryl Gane but fell short in his second UFC main event, losing by second-round knockout.

Track Jaren Kawada's daily picks and betting record on BetStamp here.

Marcin Tybura vs. Serghei Spivac Odds and Total

Moneyline

• Tybura: +130
• Spivac: -155

Total: 3.5 (Over +100/Under -130)

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Marcin Tybura vs. Serghei Spivac Prediction and Pick

Although four years have passed, it is hard to see this fight going any differently than it did the first time. Neither fighter has substantially changed any part of their game as pressure-based wrestlers with the main factor being Tybura entering the fight at 38 as opposed to 34 the first time around.

Even with Tybura's age, his fight style has allowed him to maintain his middling production as he nears 40 with few signs of slowing down. Since his first win over Spivac, Tybura has gone 8-2 with his only losses being to the two elite fighters he faced in that time. He struggled early in his UFC run but has settled firmly into a role as a top-10 gatekeeper.

Regardless of how the fight plays out, either fighter finishing the other is an improbable result given their historical approaches. Neither presents much knockout power with their hands with just one recorded knockdown between the two though 30 combined fights in the UFC. Knockouts have been how both men historically have lost with Tybura being the only fighter to beat Spivac by decision.

They both are most comfortable on the ground, an area that Tybura dominated in the first fight with eight minutes of control time. Yet both also tend to win fights by submission while neither ever submitted themselves in their careers.

While age may play a factor in the fight and cause Spivac to turn the tables, it is still not likely either gets a finish. With the round total being set at just 3.5 rounds, all that is needed is another 2:30 from their first fight which would have lasted all night if there was no time limit.

Prediction: Tybura by decision

Best bet: Over 3.5 Rounds (+100)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.