UFC Vegas 96: Angela Hill vs. Tabatha Ricci Prediction, Pick and Odds

The UFC Vegas 96 co-main event will feature a classic striker vs. wrestler matchup with Angela Hill and Tabatha Ricci fighting for a top-10 ranking in the women's strawweight division.

Hill (17-13, 11-11 in UFC) has rebounded from a 1-5 stretch from 2020 to 2022 to win four of her last five fights. Looking to extend her current win streak, Hill last picked up a win and the first submission of her career against Luana Pinheiro at UFC Vegas 92.

Ricci (10-2, 5-2 in UFC) bounced back from her first career loss at strawweight at UFC St. Louis with a split decision win over Tecia Pennington. While the win was controversial, it got her back on track after suffering a loss to Loopy Godinez six months before as she improved to 5-2 in the Octagon.

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Angela Hill vs. Tabatha Ricci Odds and Total

Moneyline

• Hill: +110
• Ricci: -130

Total: 2.5 (Over -600/Under +390)

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Angela Hill vs. Tabatha Ricci Prediction and Pick

Even considering Hill's recent submission win, the path to victory is crystal clear for both fighters. In her seven fights in the UFC, Ricci is 5-0 when she lands a takedown and 0-2 when she does not. Likewise, Hill is just 3-4 in the UFC when she allows two or more takedowns.

Through 22 UFC fights, Hill has allowed at least one takedown to all but one fighter — Ariane Carnelossi — who averages more than 1.0 takedown per 15 minutes. Ricci's 2.99 takedown average is the second-highest of any opponent of Hill's behind just Claudia Gadelha, who beat Hill by decision.

In her last six fights, Hill has been taken down by all but one opponent while allowing nine total. She has an impressive 76 percent takedown defense in her career but has been prone to being controlled beneath the strongest grapplers she has faced, including Virna Jandiroba and Mackenzie Dern, her two most recent losses.

While Ricci is likely to have her grappling success, she will have her difficulties finishing Hill, who has only been submitted twice and never knocked out. Ricci has just one finish in the UFC and has achieved 60 percent of her wins by decision with Hill losing 11 of 13 — 85 percent — by decision.

Prediction and best bet: Tabatha Ricci by decision (+125)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.