Utah State vs. San Diego State Prediction, Odds, Against Spread and Over/Under for Mountain West Championship Game

The Utah State Aggies take the No. 21 San Diego State Aztecs in Carson, California in Week 14 for the Mountain West Championship Game. It marks the first time these two teams have played this season and is an unlikely pairing for a conference championship game. Neither had great preseason odds to make the show, but, here we are. 

SDSU is 2-0 in conference championship games but hasn’t played in one since 2016. They shocked many this season by going 11-1 with their lone loss to Fresno State 30-20. Since then, the Aztecs have won four in a row including a 27-16 win over Boise State last week. The team leans heavily on its defense which ranks seventh in the nation in points allowed per game. 

Utah State is even more of a surprise to be here after its odds opened at +5000 to win the MWC. The Aggies suffered three losses this season to Wyoming, BYU, and Boise State but still eked out the top spot in the Mountain division. 

Let’s take a look at the current odds for the Mountain West Championship at WynnBET Sportsbook and pick a side for Saturday afternoon. 

Utah State vs. San Diego State Spread and Over/Under

Spread:

• Utah State +5.5 (-110) 
• SDSU -5.5  (-110) 

Moneyline:

• Utah State +190
• SDSU -225

Total:

• 49.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Utah State vs. San Diego State Betting Trends

• The Aggies are 5-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last six games. 
• The UNDER is 6-3 in the Aggies’ last six games.
• The Aggies are 1-4 ATS in their last five games against the Aztecs. 
• The Aggies are 1-4 straight up (SU) in their last five games against the Aztecs. 
• The Aztecs are 11-1 SU in their last 12 games. 
• The UNDER is 6-2 in the Aztecs' last eight games against the Mountain West Conference. 

Utah State vs. San Diego State Prediction and Pick

SDSU has looked very good in Brady Hoke’s second season as head coach of the Aztecs. As I mentioned above, it has been their defense that has gotten them this far. They rank among the Top-10 in opponent yards per game (16.9), points per play (0.232), yards per play (4.4), and third down conversion rate (31.32%). 

Their offense is middle of the road at best with a per-game average of 25.8 points and 324.7 yards. The offense is led by QB Lucas Johnson who has a modest 1,091 yards passing and nine touchdowns. It’s not as if he does much on the ground either with a total of 165 yards in 12 games. But, between himself and RB Greg Bell, they can provide enough points to their defense to work with.

This game will be tight nonetheless with Utah State’s offense the better of the two. While their defense doesn’t quite stack up, it is good enough to keep them in this game. 

I think the best bet for this game will be on the total considering how good SDSU is on defense and how lackluster their offense is. Utah State will struggle to move the ball but their defense is a Top-75 unit. Bet the under and watch the defensive magic unfold. 

Pick: UNDER 49.5