Valero Texas Open Score Predictions (How Will Top Golfers Fare at TPC San Antonio?)

Attempting to predict the final score, as well as the score for the top 10 golfers, for this week's PGA Tour event, the Valero Texas Open held at TPC San Antonio

Apr 2, 2023; San Antonio, Texas, USA; Corey Conners poses with the winner's trophy following the
Apr 2, 2023; San Antonio, Texas, USA; Corey Conners poses with the winner's trophy following the / Raymond Carlin III-USA TODAY Sports

This week's Valero Texas Open will once again be the final PGA Tour event before the first major tournament of the year, the Masters.

This week has a relatively strong field compared to past iterations of it with the likes of Rory McIlroy, Ludvig Aberg, and two-time winner, Corey Conners, returning to tee it up this week. If you want to read my full betting preview which includes my top three picks to win, you'll find it here.

In this article, I'm going to predict what the winning score will be as well as my score prediction for the top 10 golfers on the list of odds.

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Valero Texas Open Score Predictions

Winning Score: -16

We have seen a variety of winning scores since this tournament was moved to this part of the calendar back in 2019. Since then, we have seen as low of a winning score as 20-under par and as high of a winning score as -13.

I'm going to aim somewhere in the middle and predict the winning score will be 16-under par. With the strength of the field this week, I expect someone will surpass last year's winning score of 15-under par so -16 seems like a good spot.

Rory McIlroy score prediction: -8

Rory McIlroy hasn't won a PGA Tour event since the co-sanctioned Scottie Open last July. Lately, he's been good but not great. He has finished somewhere between T24 and T19 over his last four starts so I have little faith on him being in contention on Sunday this week. This isn't a good sign for his chances of completing the career grand slam next week.

Ludvig Aberg score prediction: -12

Ludvig Aberg's ball striking has been as good as it's ever been but this will be his first start since The Players Championship. He hasn't finished worse than T25 since the Sony Open back in January. His style of play fits TPC San Antonio to perfection so I expect his name to be on the leaderboard on the weekend, but he'll ultimately fall short.

Jordan Spieth score prediction: -4

Jordan Spieth won the Valero Texas Open in 2021 and was the runner-up here back in 2015. With that being said, he's been in poor form and his missed two-straight cuts and hasn't finished better than T30 since a T6 finish at the WM Phoenix Open in February.

His course experience will help him make the cut, but I have no faith in him competing this week. His ball striking has been all over the place of late.

Hideki Matsuyama score prediction: -16

If you read my betting preview this week, you'll know that Hideki Matsuyama is my best bet to win this week. he finished T15 at this event last year and his metrics have been unbelievable lately. His ball striking has reached a new level and he's leading the Tour in strokes gained around the greens.

I think Matsuyama will get his second win of the season this week.

Matt Fitzpatrick score prediction: -14

Once Matt Fitzpatrick removed the weight from his driver, his ball striking numbers have return to where they had been historically. He finished solo fifth at The Players Championship and if it wasn't for poor play around the greens, he would've had a chance to win it. I think he'll be in contention again this week but Matsuyama will ultimately pull away.

Max Homa score prediction: -9

Max Homa's season has been a bit of a roller coaster. He finished T8 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational but then followed it up with a T64 at The Players Championship. It's tough to completely trust him, especially with his poor course form. The best he has finished at this event is T42.

Corey Conners score prediction: -13

There's something to be said for horses for courses and Corey Conners is a two-time winner of the Valero Texas Open. He's also entering this week with great ball striking numbers and three top 25 finishes in his last three starts. He has a shot to defend his title this week, but I'm going to predict that he'll fall a few strokes short.

Harris English score prediction: -10

Harris English has finished T21 or better in four straight starts and his ball striking is in good form, but his course history at TPC San Antonio isn't so hot. He missed the cut the last time playing this event in 2019. He'll make the cut this time around, but his course history makes me think he won't be in contention on Sunday.

Alex Noren score prediction: -11

Alex Noren has quietly been in great form, finishing inside the top 20 in his last three starts, gaining strokes in all four major areas in all three tournaments. He needs to find a way to sink a few more birdies if he wants to win, but I'll predict another top 20 finish for the Swede. He finished T15 here last season.

Collin Morikawa score prediction: Missed Cut

Collin Morikawa has lost strokes with his approach game in two straight events for the first time in his career. He has a lot of problems with his game and this will be his first time competing at TPC San Antonio so this isn't a great time for him to turn his game around. I think he may miss the cut for the second time in three starts.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

You can check out all of Iain's bets here!