Valspar Championship Score Predictions (How Will Top Golfers Fare at Copperhead Course?)
The PGA Tour will wrap up its Florida swing this week with the Valspar Championship at Copperhead Course.
It's not the best field on the calendar, but some solid golfers are competing this week including Xander Schauffele, Justin Thomas, Jordan Spieth, and Sam Burns. If you want to check out my full betting preview and my best bets to win, you can read them here.
In this article, I'm going to attempt to predict the winning score this week as well as the final scores for the top 10 golfers on the odds list.
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Valspar Championship Score Predictions
Winning score: -15
Looking at past results of this event, it's tough to predict what the winning score will be. Sam Burns won it in 2021 and 2022 at 17-under and then Taylor Moore won it last year at 10-under. 7-under was good enough to win in both 2014 and 2016. The biggest factor in what the winning score will be is weather.
This year, it seems like the weather is going to be relatively calm so I expect the winning score to be closer to what Sam Burns shot in his two wins than what we saw from Taylor Moore last year. I'll throw out 15-under par as my prediction for the winning score.
Xander Schauffele score prediction: -13
Xander Schauffele did what Xander Schauffele does last week at The Players Championship by failing to convert down the stretch and allowing a win to slip through his fingers. I expect a similar result this week, especially with him being the better favorite and playing at a course that fits his style of play to perfection.
Sam Burns score prediction: -6
Sam Burns may have won this event in back-to-back years, but he's in poor form ahead of this week, finishing 30th and 45th the past two seasons. His game has taken a downward turn and until he proves otherwise, I'm not going to take him to be a top tier contender at any event, even one that he's won twice in the past.
Justin Thomas score prediction: -15
If you read my betting preview, you know that I like Justin Thomas to win this week. Despite missing the cut last week, he led the field in strokes gained: approach per round. Unfortunately for him, his short game was abysmal which I'm going to bank on it being a blip in the radar moreso than a sign of things to come.
Jordan Spieth score prediction: -5
Jordan Spieth has played some downright bad golf since finishing T6 at the WM Phoenix Open in February. He missed the cut at The Players last week while losing more than a stroke per round with his approach game. This field is weak enough that I'll take him to make the cut, but I don't think he'll be in the conversation on the weekend.
Tony Finau score prediction: -9
Tony Finau is another player whose game is trending in the wrong direction and the most concerning aspect of his game last week was how he lost strokes off the tee with inaccurate driving. You can't succeed at Copperhead Course with inaccurate driving so if he can't figure things out off the tee, he's going to be in trouble.
Brian Harman score prediction: -14
Brian Harman is another one of my outright picks. He checks all three boxes this week; he's a great course fit, he has solid course history, and he's entering the event in fantastic form after a runner-up finish at last week's Players. His approach play is dialed in, finishing second in strokes gained: approach last week.
Cameron Young score prediction: missed cut
Cameron Young is yet another golfer with a recognizable name who has been playing bad golf of late. He has finished T36 and T54 in his last two starts and his short game seems to be all over the place. Additionally, he's been wayward with his driver which will cost him in a big way this week.
Sungjae Im score prediction: -4
Sungjae Im gave us false hope with a T18 finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and then reminded us of how poor form he's in when he finished T31 at The Players Championship. He's not going anything particularly well, so I expect him to once again be a non-factor this week.
Min Woo Lee score prediction: missed cut
Min Woo Lee isn't the type of golfer I'd be looking to back this week on account of how many bogeys he can rack up in a round. It's also worth noting he lost strokes with his approach game last week and finished T54. His signature short game seems to have betrayed him of late and he needs to find his form against before I'd be willing to look his way from a betting perspective.
Nick Taylor score prediction: -12
Nick Taylor has an interesting case to make this week. He finished 10th at this event last year and has played some solid golf lately including at win at the WM Phoenix Open as well as being in the conversation at times throughout The Players Championship.
I don't think he'll have much of a shot to win this week, but a solid finish backed by a low round on Sunday could be on the horizon for the Canadian.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
You can check out all of Iain's bets here!