Vanderbilt vs. Florida Prediction, Odds, Trends and Key Players for College Football Week 6
By Reed Wallach
Florida fell behind early against Kentucky and couldn't get back on track in a battle for positioning in the SEC East. The team shifts its focus now to a struggling Vanderbilt team at home on Saturday afternoon.
The Gators return home where the team has fared far better, including grabbing an upset win against Tennessee, and will look to take care of business against a Vanderbilt team that has allowed 28 or more points to every FBS opponent this season.
Can Graham Mertz and the Gators offense get on track on Saturday? Here are the odds and our best bet on this matchup:
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Vanderbilt vs. Florida Odds, Spread and Total
Florida vs. Vanderbilt Betting Trends
- Vanderbilt is 0-6 against the spread (ATS)
- Florida is 1-4 ATS this season
- Vanderbilt has gone OVER in five of six games this season (one push)
- Florida has gone UNDER in two of three home games
Vanderbilt vs. Florida How to Watch
- Date: Saturday, October 7
- Game Time: 4:00 PM EST
- Venue: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
- How to Watch (TV): SEC Network
- Vanderbilt Record: 2-4
- Florida Record: 3-2
Vanderbilt vs. Florida Key Players to Watch
Vanderbilt
A.J. Swann: Swann missed the team's home loss to Missouri at home last week, but is expected back in the lineup to hopefully give a boost to the passing game. He must be more accurate with the ball, completing only 54% of his passes so far this season.
Florida
Graham Mertz: When Florida has trailed this season, Mertz's lack of arm talent has been clear. However, in a positive game script, Mertz has been able to orchestrate a fairly talented offense that can lean on the run game and it's sturdy defense. The former Wisconsin quarterback is completing 79% of his passes, but is averaging less than seven yards per drop back, making very simple and high percentage passes.
Vanderbilt vs. Florida Prediction and Pick
Florida's game scripts are fairly predictable: when the team is ahead, the team is an under team. Mertz doesn't posses an explosive arm and the Florida play calling is very conservative that limits the team's ability to put up a ton of points.
The team can be privy to falling behind, which puts Mertz's turnover tendencies on full display and could lead to more short fields for the opponent, leading to high-scoring games.
I think the prior is more likely in this matchup with Florida laying north of two touchdowns against a hapless Vanderbilt defense. While Vandy's defense has been prone to allowing a ton of points to the likes of Hawaii and UNLV, I still believe Florida tracks as an under team given the team's limited explosive plays -- the Gators are 124th in explosive pass rate and 89th in explosive run rate.
Meanwhile, the Gators defense should limit Vanderbilt's offense, ranking fifth in success rate allowed. UF is outside the top 100 in plays per minute and is very content letting the clock burn as it force feeds Trevor Etienne and Montrell Johnson Jr.
I like the under in this matchup with Florida leading this low scoring matchup throughout with limited chunk plays.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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