Vegas Isn't Buying Tua Tagovailoa Taking Next Step Ahead of 2022 Season

The 2022 NFL season is a make or break one for Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, and Vegas isn’t so sure he’s going to be up to the task. 

Tagovailoa and the Dolphins are third in the odds to win the AFC East this season at +475 even after a massive offseason that saw them bring in several weapons to help out their franchise quarterback. 

Miami signed running backs Chase Edmonds, Sony Michel and Raheem Mostert, and traded for superstar receiver Tyreek Hill. Receiver Cedrick Wilson also joined the team’s receiving corps in the offseason. 

Yet, despite that offseason, Vegas still has the Dolphins behind the New England Patriots, who essentially stood pat, other than losing top corner J.C. Jackson, after making the playoffs last season. 

Even with all of these weapons, oddsmakers just don’t have a ton of faith in Tua. 

For what it’s worth, Dolphins fans, Hill has praised Tagovailoa a ton this offseason, but actions during the 2022 season are going to speak louder than words when it comes to Tua. 

Following the Hill trade, Miami made a jump in the futures market, and Tagovailoa shot up the MVP odds as well.

But now, after the 2022 NFL Draft and more of the NFL offseason, Miami is 10th in the odds to win the AFC. The Dolphins narrowly missed the playoffs in the 2020 and 2021 seasons, but with several big-name players migrating to the AFC (Russell Wilson, Davante Adams, Khalil Mack), Miami is far from a lock for a playoff spot even with the moves it made. 

Through his two seasons with the Dolphins, Tagovailoa has posted a 13-8 record as a starter. He is one of the most accurate passers in the NFL, completing 67.8 percent of his passes last season, but he doesn’t throw the ball down the field as much as some other quarterbacks. 

In 2021, Tagovailoa averaged just 5.5 air yards per completion, which was good for 24th in the NFL. Not only that, but he relied very heavily on RPO (run pass option) plays to generate yards through the air. 

Tagovailoa led the NFL in passing yards on RPO plays in 2021, throwing for 847 in 13 games. He threw for 2,653 yards in total, meaning 31.9 percent of his passing yards were via RPO play calls. 

That’s going to be something head coach Mike McDaniel has to gameplan for, as the team has to find a way to accentuate Tua’s strengths if they’re going to succeed. 

You may see some value in Miami, but until we see Tua truly take the next step, they are a risky play in the futures market.

Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.