Vegas Odds Suggest Big Gap Remains Between Justin Herbert, Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa

There’s no doubt that Justin Herbert, the 2020 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, is the leader in the clubhouse when it comes to second-year signal-callers. 

However, Herbert was the third quarterback selected in the 2020 NFL Draft, and still has a lead on Joe Burrow (the No. 1 overall pick) and Tua Tagovailoa (the No. 5 overall pick) heading into the 2021 season. 

WynnBET released a new prop for second year players as a part of their “Next Step” props, and Tagovailoa is lagging seriously behind Herbert and Burrow in the odds to have the most passing yards. 

Here’s how they currently stack up: 

Next Step - Most Passing Yards in Regular Season Odds

• Justin Herbert: +100
• Joe Burrow: +150
• Tua Tagovailoa: +600
• Jalen Hurts: +1800

There is a major gap between Tagovailoa and the likes of Burrow and Herbert, which suggests that oddsmakers don’t see him on the same level as the two other top picks. 

Tagovailoa made nine starts in the 2020 season for the Miami Dolphins, but he threw for just 1,814 yards, 11 touchdowns, and five interceptions. He was also benched twice in games in favor of Ryan Fitzpatrick. 

Tua has been better this preseason, and he’s improved on third down as well after ranking last in completion percentage on third down in the 2020 season.

Still, Tagovailoa has a lot to prove before oddsmakers are willing to put him up there with Burrow and Herbert. Considering Burrow is coming off a torn ACL, it’s even more disheartening for Dolphins fans that Tua has this little respect in Vegas. 

Herbert is the clear favorite in my eyes, and while +600 odds do give Tagovailoa some value, bettors would be wise to see how he performs out of the gate before betting on him to take the next step this season. 

Interested in making these bets? Maybe even fading them? Download the WynnBET app.