Virginia vs. North Carolina Prediction, Odds, Trends and Key Players for College Football Week 8
By Reed Wallach
Slowly but surely, North Carolina is starting to be spoken about with the elite teams in the country.
The Drake Maye-led Tar Heels are still undefeated and looking to handle the back half of the their schedule, controlling their destiny to the ACC Championship game at the moment. After beating Miami last week in a projected barnburner, North Carolina welcomes lowly Virginia off its bye week to town.
The Cavaliers gave the Tar Heels a scare last year despite being poor as poor then as now, losing 31-28. Can the Cavaliers hang with UNC once again, or is Mack Brown's bunch truly turning a corner?
Here's our best bet for this ACC matchup:
Virginia vs. North Carolina Odds, Spread and Total
North Carolina vs. Virginia Betting Trends
- North Carolina is 5-1 against the spread (ATS) this season, covering in four straight
- Virginia is 4-2 ATS this season
- North Carolina is 3-2 to the OVER this season
Get more Week 8 college football content with our picks against the spread for EVERY Top 25 game!
Virginia vs. North Carolina How to Watch
- Date: Saturday, October 21
- Game Time: 6:30 PM EST
- Venue: Kenan Stadium
- How to Watch (TV): The CW
- Virginia Record: 1-5
- North Carolina Record: 6-0
Virginia vs. North Carolina Key Players to Watch
Virginia
Tony Muskett: Muskett recovered from injury earlier this season and now had a bye to further recover. Before the off week, Muskett looked sharp in his past two games nearly leading UVA to two straight wins, squandering a late lead to Boston College before beating William and Mary. In those two games, Muskett completed north of 64% passes with six total touchdowns.
North Carolina
Drake Maye: Maye wasn't at his best last week against Miami, only completing 51% of his passes, but tossed four touchdown passes, taking the top off the Hurricanes defense. The sheer thought of Maye's arm has opened up the run game for the Tar Heels, making them more dynamic as a whole. Now, the team faces arguably the worst defense in the conference.
Virginia vs. North Carolina Prediction and Pick
If you want to bet on this Week 8 matchup, you should do it at FanDuel Sportsbook, who is giving new users $200 in bonus bets! All you, a new user, have to do is sign up with the link below and deposit $5 to bet! Once you bet those $5, you get $200 in bonus bets INSTANTLY.
I understand the pessimism with trusting Virginia to hang within the number against North Carolina, who just hung 41 points on Miami in a primetime matchup and looks to be a true ACC contender. However, that's the side to play in this one.
Virginia's defense is poor, generating only five sacks on the year and ranking 123rd in red zone touchdown percentage.
However, the team is right around the national in EPA/Pass. The team hasn't been blown out via explosive plays. I believe that in a projected blowout, UVA could make North Carolina drive the field and maybe make the scoreline more respectable.
Further, the team is 87th in plays per minute this season, and also is starting to turn a corner on that side of the ball. Granted its against an FCS team and Boston College, a terrible D, but the team has shown some ability to push the ball down the field, ranking 36th in yards per pass attempt and 52nd in explosive pass rate.
Overall, North Carolina is around the national average in terms of EPA/Play and success rate. The team has been able to blow teams out, yes, but also this is a swift change in expectations after being listed as a favorite of single digits in five of six games to date.
It's worth noting the only spread North Carolina hasn't covered was as a three-score favorite against Appalachian State.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Track Reed's bets here!