Wake Forest vs. Virginia Pick: Is the Wrong ACC Team Favored?

After a blowout 59-39 loss to No. 21 North Carolina last week to start off ACC play, the 2-1 Virginia Cavaliers (2-1 ATS) can right the ship at home on Friday night when they welcome undefeated 3-0 Wake Forest (1-2 ATS) to Scott Stadium in Charlottesville.

The Demon Deacons, despite a perfect start to the season come in as 3.5-point road underdogs (-115) with moneyline odds of +140 at WynnBET Sportsbook. Virginia is -165 on the moneyline, meaning bettors would have to wager $165 to win $100 if they were to take UVA straight up.

The total currently sits at a monster 68.5 number, with both the over and under at even odds of -110.

While the Cavaliers are currently favored at home, with how dominant Wake Forest has been so far this season, is the proper team favored in this matchup?

Virginia vs. Wake Forest Breakdown

After opening as four-point consensus favorites, the line at most books, including at WynnBET has come down to -3.5 for Virginia.

Both teams have gotten off to excellent offensive starts this season. Wake Forest averages 39.3 points per game with Virginia slightly ahead at 41.3 through their first three games of the season. Defensively, the Deacons have allowed only 40 points through their first three games. Virginia shut out William & Mary, then gave up only 14 points to Illinois, but then had the wheels come off vs. North Carolina giving up 35 points in the second half.

Both teams shouldn't have trouble scoring behind two stud quarterbacks in Sam Hartman and Brennan Armstrong, who are off to outstanding starts this season. Armstrong in particular is putting up eye-opening numbers, currently ranked third in FBS with 1,298 passing yards and second with 12 touchdowns to just two picks.

This will be Wake Forest's first ACC road game of the season as the Deacons beat up on Florida State at home last week: 35-14. That was the lone game of the season that Wake Forest covered the spread as 4.5 point home favorites; considering they were 32.5-point favorites against Old Dominion in Week 1, and 43-point favorites against Norfolk State in Week 2.

For Virginia, they've certainly played a higher level of competition than Wake through the first three games, but their defense was exposed last week against the Tar Heels. Furthermore, Wake Forest head coach Dave Clawson has won four straight against Virginia in the series, including a 40-23 convincing home win a season ago.

Wake Forest at Virginia Pick

I still contend that the wrong team is favored here, despite Virginia playing at home in prime time. Wake Forest's combination of consistency, domination in this series, and overall record don't seem to be getting much respect from the oddsmakers. Florida State may now be 0-3 on the season, but Wake Forest was only a 4.5-point favorite at home and they ended up winning by three touchdowns.

I lean on the Demon Deacons to at least cover with the 3.5-point hook, in what should be a fairly compelling shootout in Charlottesville.

LEAN: Wake Forest +3.5

Think Wake Forest should be the favorites? Or do you like Virginia to cover at home? Make your pick now at WynnBET!