Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Fade Carlos Rodon, Trust Reds to Win)

There are several intriguing pitching matchups in Major League Baseball on Tuesday night, and there are a few that I’m targeting in today’s MLB Best Bets. 

After a 2-1 day in Monday’s best bets, I have three more plays to dive into for Tuesday’s slate, including returning to the No Run First Inning market.

Let’s break down each of these plays!

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MLB Best Bets Today for April 9

• Kansas City Royals vs. Houston Astros NRFI
• Cincinnati Reds Moneyline vs. Milwaukee Brewers
• Carlos Rodon UNDER 6.5 Strikeouts

Kansas City Royals vs. Houston Astros NRFI

Two starters that have been lights out to start the 2024 season face off in Kansas City on Tuesday.

Royals ace Cole Ragans comes into this game with a 1.46 ERA on the season, and he allowed one hit across 6.1 innings in his last outing. Houston will counter with Cristian Javier, who has a 0.00 ERA in two starts giving up just five hits across 11.0 innings of work. 

So, why not take both pitchers to get off to a quick start? Both of these teams are hitting the NRFI at a 60 percent or better clip this season, and Javier has yet to allow a single run. 

Ragans has allowed a run in the first inning this season, but Houston is hitting just .229 against left-handed pitching so far this season. I expect both starters to make quick work in the early innings on Tuesday.

Cincinnati Reds Moneyline vs. Milwaukee Brewers

I love the Cincinnati Reds to win outright against Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Joe Rosse, who made his first appearance in multiple seasons in his season debut. 

Ross wasn’t bad – he didn’t allow a run – but he walked five batters across 3.2 innings of work. That’s slightly concerning against a Reds team that is seventh in Major League Baseball in OPS, and Cincy also has its ace on the mound in this game.

Frankie Montas (2-0, 0.77 ERA) gets the ball for the Reds in this one after allowing just nine hits and one run across 11.2 innings of work this season. 

I’ll back the Reds and their pitching advantage to win this game as a slight favorite. 

Carlos Rodon UNDER 6.5 Strikeouts

New York Yankees lefty Carlos Rodon has not put up great strikeout numbers in pinstripes, including through his first two starts this season.

Rodon has just seven total strikeouts in two starts this season (9.2 innings of work) and the Miami Marlins haven’t been extremely strikeout prone, ranking 18th in Major League Baseball in K’s this season.

Dating back to last season, Rodon has more than six punchouts in just three of his 16 starts. I’ll gladly fade him at this number on Tuesday.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Find Peter Dewey's betting record here You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.