Warriors vs. Nuggets Western Conference First Round Series Prediction and Odds (Healthy Warriors Should Roll)

The Western Conference playoffs are going to be a treat, as fans will get to see the likely MVP in Nikola Jokic take on Klay Thompson, Steph Curry (hopefully) and the Golden State Warriors in the first round. 

The No. 3 seeded Warriors are hoping that Curry, who is dealing with a foot injury, will be good to go for the postseason run after sitting out the team’s final 12 games. Jordan Poole and Thompson have stepped up in his absence, but the Warriors will need Curry to have any chance at cashing in on their +900 odds to win the NBA Finals at WynnBET. 

The Nuggets have Jokic, which has been enough in previous years (2021) to win a first round series, but it’s hard to see Jokic, Aaron Gordon and Will Barton upsetting a healthy Warriors team. 

Denver won’t have Jamal Murray or Michael Porter Jr. returning for this series unless something drastically changes, but it’s impressive that the team even made it to this point without both players. 

Before we make a pick on this series, let’s check out all the odds at WynnBET Sportsbook: 

Warriors vs. Nuggets Series and Exact Outcome Odds

Series Odds

• Denver Nuggets: +175
• Golden State Warriors: -215

Exact Outcome Odds

• Warriors in 7: +350
• Warriors in 5: +375
• Warriors in 6: +425
• Nuggets in 6: +550
• Nuggets in 7: 700
• Warriors in 4: +800
• Nuggets in 5: +1100
• Nuggets in 4: +1500

Warriors vs. Nuggets Prediction and Pick

Denver won three of the four matchups between these two teams in the 2021-22 regular season, but each win was decided by seven or fewer points. 

Golden State at full strength is the clearly superior team, but it is important for bettors to know Curry’s status for the series before placing any wager. 

The Warriors thrive on the defensive end of the floor, especially when Draymond Green is in the lineup, ranking No. 2 in the league in defensive rating this season. However, Jokic throws quite a curveball at the Golden State defense. 

The Warriors play small, almost exclusively, with Kevon Looney and Nemanja Bjelica handling most of the minutes at the center position. They go even smaller when Green plays the center spot, and that may spell trouble against Jokic. 

Golden State is going to have to send double teams at the reigning MVP, as he is a matchup nightmare for them down low. This season against the Warriors, Jokic is averaging 28.0 points, 15.8 rebounds and 8.8 assists per game while shooting 51.9 percent from the field.

The Warriors could double Jokic and dare anyone else on Denver to beat them, but the Nuggets have capable shooters in Barton, Bones Hyland and Monte Morris. The Nuggets are No. 1 in effective field goal percentage and No. 1 in true shooting percentage this season, mainly because of Jokic’s ability to facilitate the offense. 

Golden State is fourth and sixth in those respective categories, but there is one glaring issue that gives the Warriors the edge. 

The Nuggets are plus-8.4 points per 100 possessions with Jokic on the floor this season, but they are a shocking minus-8.0 points per 100 possessions when he is off. To put this in perspective, the Warriors’ on/off numbers with Curry are plus-10.1 when he’s on and plus-0.1 when he’s off. 

The Warriors are going to have to win the non-Jokic minutes, and I think they will handily as Denver’s net rating without him would be the fourth-worst in the league this season. 

I think this series is close, but as long as Curry plays the Warriors just have too much firepower for the rest of Denver’s roster to keep up. 

Lean: Warriors (-125) | Warriors in 6 (+425)

Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.