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White Sox vs. Astros Prediction and Odds for Friday, June 17 (All Signs Point Over)

By Joe Summers

Danny Mendick and the White Sox lineup are waking up ahead of today's matchup with the Astros
Danny Mendick and the White Sox lineup are waking up ahead of today's matchup with the Astros / Duane Burleson/GettyImages
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The 30-31 Chicago White Sox head to Houston to open up a three-game series with the 39-24 Astros tonight at 8:10 PM EST.

Lucas Giolito starts for Chicago after a three-game sweep of the Tigers. He has a 4-2 record and 3.88 ERA though he gave up at least four runs in two of his last starts.

Houston counters with Framber Valdez, who allowed three or fewer earned runs in all but one of his 12 outings. Valdez has a 6-3 record and 2.64 ERA but struggles at home.

Can Valdez solve those home issues with a win against Chicago or will Giolito keep the wins rolling?

Here are the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook to help analyze this White Sox vs Astros matchup:

White Sox vs Astros Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

  • White Sox: +1.5 (-150)
  • Astros: -1.5 (+125)

Moneyline:

  • White Sox: +146
  • Astros: -156

Total:

  • 7.5 (Over -125/Under +105)

White Sox vs Astros Prediction and Pick

This total is surprisingly low. Valdez has a 4.15 ERA at home and the White Sox lead MLB in OPS against left-handed pitchers. The over is 12-4 in their last 16 games as their lineup is waking up.

Lucas Giolito isn't his typical self either. After a stellar 2021 campaign, he's regressed significantly. His expected ERA (4.66) is much higher than his actual ERA (3.88) and Houston ranks ninth in OPS against right-handed pitchers over the last two weeks.

Giolito gave up five home runs in his last three starts and ranks in the 14th percentile in average exit velocity. He struggles with command and gets hit hard - a poor combination. Take a peak at his MLB Statcast Pitching Profile and tell me the total should only be 7.5:

Valdez, meanwhile, issued three walks in each of his last three starts and I expect the White Sox to find success against him.

The under is a great bet in Astros' games but with the wind blowing out to center field and two shaky pitchers against strong lineups, the over is the play today.

Pick: OVER 7.5 (-125)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.

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