Wild Card Weekend Lines Move Towards Multiple Underdogs

Over the course of the last few seasons, underdogs have been a very profitable bet during the NFL Wild Card Round. This was especially the case last season when underdogs went 8-5 ATS, including the Bucs win in the Super Bowl as short underdogs. Things get even better when looking back over Wild Card rounds of the season’s past where underdogs are 15-3 ATS in the last four years. That is a pretty strong start and suggests that some Wild Card teams are being undervalued. Overall, NFL Playoff underdogs are covering at a rate of 55 percent with a 108-89-4 record since 2003.

It seems that bettors have taken note of this trend and been hammering several underdogs for this weekend. This, as one would expect, has shifted the odds in these three games by a whole point in some cases. Let’s take a quick look at three games in particular where the early money has moved the odds towards the underdogs.

Raiders +5.5 at Bengals - Opened at 6.5

The Raiders remain one of the most popular weekly underdog bets in the game heading into the Wild Card Round. The Raiders are winners of four in a row and are 3-1 against the spread in that span. Their last three games have all been straight-up wins as single-digit underdogs over the Broncos (+1), Colts (+8.5), and the Chargers (+3). So naturally, they are getting a lot of attention from sharp bettors in this spot. 

Patriots +4 at Bills - Opened at 4.5

The Patriots had success against the spread during 2021 and ended the regular season with a 10-7 ATS overall. They covered by an average of 6.2 points per game and also was 3-2 as an underdog. However, they are just 1-3 ATS in their last four games Coincidentally, the last time that the Patriots covered as an underdog on the road was against the Bills in Week 13. The Bills did get revenge in Week 16 however. 

Eagles +8.5 at Bucs - Opened at 9

The Eagles have proven themselves to be a dangerous team after winning four of their last five games and punching their ticket to the playoffs. What they are not, however, are a team that does particularly well as underdogs against the spread. As an underdog, the Eagles are 3-5 ATS and 5-4 in all road games. Philly is 5-1 ATS in their last six playoff games but the Bucs are 10-2 in their last 12.