Wild Wagering Trends for NFL Divisional Round: Patrick Mahomes is in Uncharted Territory

Oddsmakers expect a tight game when the No. 3 seeded Buffalo Bills head to Kansas City to face Patrick Mahomes and the No. 2 Chiefs at Arrowhead.
Oddsmakers expect a tight game when the No. 3 seeded Buffalo Bills head to Kansas City to face Patrick Mahomes and the No. 2 Chiefs at Arrowhead. / Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
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Over the course of this week, the team at BetSided has sorted through hundreds of stats, trends, and other data for the NFL's Divisional Round to help it all make sense before you place your bets.

Here's a look at the latest odds over at WynnBET:

  • Bengals at Titans (-3.5) | TOTAL: 47
  • 49ers at Packers (-6) | TOTAL: 47.5
  • Rams at Buccaneers (-2.5) | TOTAL 47.5

With four compelling games on the schedule, beginning with the No. 4 Cincinnati Bengals facing the No. 1 Tennessee Titans in Nashville at 4:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, let's take a look at the three most wild trends that are worth consideration before you hit submit.

NFL Divisional Round Betting Trends and Notes

Tom Brady Has More Divisional Round Wins Than 12 Teams Have Playoff Wins

Earlier in the week, you may have checked out Jon Helmkamp's story about how Tom Brady has collected 35 playoff wins in his historic career. But even crazier than that is he only trails the New England Patriots by TWO games for the most playoff victories of all-time!

The GOAT currently sits in fourth place for the most playoff wins by himself compared to other franchises. But what about in the divisional round specifically?

Brady has gone 14-2 all-time in this round of the playoffs while going 12-1 at home. Granted, this year will be his first home playoff game in this round of the postseason after beating the New Orleans Saints as 2.5-point underdogs a season ago at the Superdome.

If you're interested in the teams that Brady has more divisional wins than by himself, here it is:

  • New York Jets (12)
  • L.A. Chargers (12)
  • Cleveland Browns (12)
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11)
  • New Orleans Saints (10)
  • Atlanta Falcons (10)
  • Carolina Panthers (9)
  • Jacksonville Jaguars (7)
  • Arizona Cardinals (7)
  • Detroit Lions (7)
  • Cincinnati Bengals (6)
  • Houston Texans (4)

Patrick Mahomes Has Never Been a Home Favorite of Less Than 2.5 Points

After WynnBET opened the Bills-Chiefs matchup with Kansas City as a 2-point favorite, the line moved to 2.5 and held until Wednesday, when sharp money hit Buffalo moving them to +1.5.

WynnBET Senior Trader Motoi Pearson told BetSided that they wanted to see what type of action they would take with a move towards the underdog early in the week, and so far the line has remained steady.

As a starter, Mahomes and the Chiefs has always been the favorite in home games. In 37 games since he took over the starting role at home, Kansas City has won 81% of the games he's started, but only covered 52.8% of the games against the spread.

This season, the Chiefs started off 2-7 ATS in their first nine games, and are now 9-9 ATS overall this season. Buffalo is 10-6-2 ATS overall, and 5-3-0 on the road.

Titans, Packers Have a Huge Betting Edge in the Saturday Games, Rams and Bills on Sunday

The Tennessee Titans and Green Bay Packers are already breathing a sigh of relief after having an extra week to recover and prepare for this round of the postseason in their home stadium. And based off the last 11 seasons, they're likely to not only win outright, but cover as well.

Via FOX Sports, home teams in the Saturday slate have gone 16-5-1 ATS, covering 76% of the games!

The Packers are currently 5.5-point favorites against the 49ers after opening at 4.5 and moving at one point up to 6. The Titans have sat at -3.5 throughout the week when they host the Bengals in the mid-afternoon game.

However, it's the road teams on Sunday that have been more successful vs. the number.

FOX also points out that road teams are 21-8-1 ATS on the Sunday slate over the last 15 seasons, giving a potential nod to the L.A. Rams (+2.5) as well as the Buffalo Bills (+1.5) when they travel to Tampa Bay and Kansas City respectively.