WNBA Best Bets Today (Bet Aces to Dominate Overvalued Sun on Tuesday)

Las Vegas Aces coach Becky Hammon talks with Aces' guard Jackie Young from the sidelines. The Aces lead the WNBA with an 8-1 record in 2022.
Las Vegas Aces coach Becky Hammon talks with Aces' guard Jackie Young from the sidelines. The Aces lead the WNBA with an 8-1 record in 2022. / Ethan Miller/GettyImages

Following a quiet Memorial Day with no action on the board, we've got four games on tonight's WNBA schedule; including the game of the night between the league's two best squads as the Connecticut Sun visit the Las Vegas Aces in Sin City.

Additionally, there's an intriguing battle in Chicago between the Sky and Mercury, the Fever look to remain undefeated since changing their head coach when they host the Mystics, and the Sparks host the Wings in the night cap from L.A.

Following a 2-0 weekend, let's stay hot this Tuesday!

Best WNBA Prop Bets Record to Date

  • WNBA Best Bets Record: 14-11

All odds coming from WynnBET Sportsbook.

Top WNBA Picks For Tuesday, May 31

  • Mystics vs. Fever UNDER 164.5 (-110)
  • Mercury + 9 (-115) at Sky
  • Aces -3.5 (-110) vs. Sun
  • Wings vs. Sparks OVER 168.5 (-110)

Mystics vs. Fever Odds, Prediction and Pick

  • Spread: Mystics -7.5 (-110) | Fever +7.5 (-110)
  • Moneyline: Mystics -370 | Fever +290
  • Total: 164.5 (OVER -110 | UNDER -110)

The Fever snapped their five-game skid back on May 27 in an upset victory against the L.A. Sparks at home; putting up their best offensive outburst of the season.

Meanwhile, the Mystics were without their two of their top players in Alysha Clark and Elena Delle Donne in their 79-71 road loss to Connecticut on Saturday.

Interim head coach Carlos Knox is 1-0 so far for the Fever, but the Mystics are back healthy are simply too talented defensively; ranking first in opponent points per game and fourth in opponent points per 100 possessions. Even with Clark still out, Washington ranks last in pace as it'll slow down the Fever's frenetic pace and turn this into a defensive battle.

PICK: UNDER 164.5 (-110)

Mercury vs. Sky Odds, Prediction and Pick

  • Spread: Mercury +9 (-115) | Sky -9 (-105)
  • Moneyline: Mercury +325 | Sky -425
  • Total: 166.5 (OVER -110 | UNDER -110)

The Mercury are in absolute free fall right now. After a 2-1 start, Phoenix has dropped five straight, including its last game at Atlanta by 27 points on the road. The Mercury rank dead last in opponent points per 100 possessions and making little to no effort defensively to get stops.

I thought a wake up call was coming earlier following Skylar Diggins-Smith and Diana Taurasi's scuffle on the sidelines earlier this month on the road at Las Vegas, but the message has yet to be received.

As for the Sky, they come off a close game at home against the Aces, but needed a late fourth quarter charge just to make it close. Chicago is a very solid team, but it is in the second tier behind Las Vegas and maybe Connecticut for elite teams this season. Chicago is right in the middle of the pack in pts/100 possessions, opponent points/100 possessions, and while the Sky lead the WNBA in two-point percentage (51.8%), they struggle from 3-point range; ranking 11th at just 31.1%.

I think we see a more focused Mercury team tonight as they raise their level of competition vs. a talented Chicago squad, who is teaming up to help raise awareness for Mercury center Brittney Griner; who remains detained in Russia over the last 100-plus days.

LEAN: Mercury +9 (-115)

Sun vs. Aces Odds, Prediction and Pick

  • Spread: Sun +3.5 (-110) | Aces -3.5 (-110)
  • Moneyline: Sun +150 | Aces -180
  • Total: 167.5 (OVER -110 | UNDER -110)

If you've read my analysis on the league throughout the season, you're well aware that I believe the Sun are overvalued by oddsmakers this season. They're 6-2 on the season, but are only 4-4 ATS. Their eight-point win at home vs. Washington was the toughest roster they've faced this season, but the Mystics were without Alysha Clark and Elene Delle Donne and still covered.

Meanwhile, the Aces are 8-1 overall, 5-0 at home, and are annihilating everyone in their path. Following four straight wins in Las Vegas, they handled the Sky by seven on the road in a game that was much further apart than the final score indicated.

Both these two teams are elite offensively, and as much as I want to take the over; I do buy in that Connecticut is also very good defensively. But the Sun still haven't played anyone, and the Aces have already been tested throughout the season by good teams and handled the challenge.

Don't overthink this. Vegas is the play and should cover easily at home.

PICK: Aces -3.5 (-110)

Wings vs. Sparks Odds, Prediction and Pick

  • Spread: Wings +1.5 (-110) | Sparks -1.5 (-110)
  • Moneyline: Wings +105 | Sparks -125
  • Total: 168.5 (OVER -110 | UNDER -110)

Following three solid wins, the Wings got humbled by the Sun in their second game of a back-to-back in Connecticut; falling by 31 after winning by eight in Game 1. I still think highly of Dallas, but the Sparks have won two of three, and are finally back home after playing eight of their first 10 games on the road.

While I'd normally like the Sparks in this spot, it's worth pointing out that this is their fifth game in eight days against a Wings team that's been stewing since last Thursday from their blowout loss.

Both these teams rank in the bottom third of the WNBA in opponent effective field goal percentage as well as opponents points per play, and I expect defense to be optional as the Sparks start to tire out down the stretch.

As tempted as I am to take the Wings on the moneyline at plus-odds, I'll settle for the over instead.

LEAN: OVER 168.5 (-110)

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