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Top NFL Player Prop Today: How to Bet on Caleb Williams vs Vikings

Caleb Williams is coming off of one of his more inspiring games this season, but these two stats show why he could be in a bit of trouble this week.

By Gage Bridgford

Caleb Williams surveys the field
Caleb Williams surveys the field / Mark Hoffman / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
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In our first NFL play in more than a month, we’re going to target one of the league’s rookie quarterbacks in Caleb Williams of the Chicago Bears. Caleb looked solid in his first game with Thomas Brown calling the plays, but he draws a tougher matchup this week with the Minnesota Vikings coming to town to finish off their three-game homestand.

It has been a little bit since we dabbled in the NFL world, and it was not a pleasant ending that caused us to take a break. We went 0-2 in our last two plays back in Week 7. Demario Douglas was dealing with an illness that wasn’t reported until 30 minutes before the start of the game, and Kareem Hunt of the Kansas City Chiefs rolled over the San Francisco 49ers without much throwing at all.

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NFL Best Bet Today

  • Caleb Williams O0.5 Interceptions Thrown (-105) - 1 Unit BetMGM

Caleb Williams O0.5 Interceptions Thrown (-105) BetMGM

Through his first 10 games in the NFL, Caleb has thrown only five interceptions on the season, and four came in two games back in Week 2 and Week 3. He hasn’t thrown one since October 13th. Despite that, that doesn’t mean he’s been great the entire time. Among qualified quarterbacks, Williams has the third-worst bad-throw rate while having the fourth-worst on-target rate. 

His matchup for this week will be the Vikings. Minnesota leads the NFL with 16 interceptions this year, and they’re tied for third in sacks. Caleb leads the league with 41 sacks, and he’s been pressured on 24.3 percent of his dropbacks this year. Three of his five interceptions have come when he’s been under pressure, and the Vikings are first in pressure rate and blitz percentage where Caleb sees a dip in production.

The Vikings are a sure-handed defense, and they have had a knack for causing chaos and forcing mistakes all season long. They’ve generated at least one interception in nine of their ten games this year, and Caleb is going to give them chances to make that 10 out of 11 this week. They stop the run extremely well with the second-fewest rushing yards allowed this season. They’re going to force Caleb to throw the football, and I believe they’ll make him pay for a mistake at least once.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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