2024 AFC Playoff Projections Based on Odds (Who's the Odd Team Out?)
By Peter Dewey
The opening NFL playoff odds were released last week, and there are so many ways for fans and bettors to use them to project the 2024 standings -- and place wagers on the NFL.
Today, I'm examining the playoff odds in the AFC, as there are eight different teams favored to make the postseason and one (the Jacksonville Jaguars) set at even odds.
Since only seven teams can make the postseason, who do oddsmakers truly expect to make it? Using the odds -- here's a way-too-early prediction of the AFC playoff seeds in 2024.
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Predicting the AFC Playoff Seeds Based on Odds
1. Kansas City Chiefs (-475)
The Chiefs are heavily favored to win the AFC West, and they have the best odds of any AFC team to make the playoffs at -475 -- an implied probability of 82.61 percent.
The back-to-back Super Bowl champions are the clear favorites to be the No. 1 seed, and oddsmakers seem sold on their offseason moves after KC finished third in the AFC last season.
2. Baltimore Ravens (-330)
Among AFC teams, Baltimore has the second best odds to make the playoffs, and the team is +115 to win the AFC North (implied probability of 46.51 percent).
The Ravens are favored to win the AFC North, so they land in the No. 2 spot a season after winning the AFC in the regular season.
3. Buffalo Bills (-300)
Buffalo is heavily favored to win the AFC East again after coming from behind to win the division in the last week of the season in the 2023 season.
The Bills are slightly behind the Ravens in the playoff odds, which is why they land in the No. 3 spot, but they still are expected to earn a playoff spot.
4. Houston Texans (-140)
Houston earns the No. 4 spot, even though it has worse odds than the Cincinnati Bengals and Miami Dolphins to make the playoffs.
Why? Well, the Texans are the favorite at the moment in the AFC South, so they'd get home-field advantage in the playoffs if they pull off that feat for the second straight season.
5. Cincinnati Bengals (-225)
The Cincinnati Bengals missed the playoffs last season after losing Joe Burrow, but they are favored to make the postseason in 2024.
Cincy made the AFC title game in back-to-back seasons when Joe Burrow was healthy (2021 and 2022), and oddsmakers think they'll contend for an AFC North title in 2024.
6. Miami Dolphins (-175)
Miami was a playoff team (the No. 6 seed) in 2023, and oddsmakers are expecting them to come right back to that spot in 2024.
The Dolphins lost a lot of key defenders (Andrew Van Ginkel, Christian Wilkins, Xavien Howard, Jerome Baker) this offseason, so there's a chance they may take a little step back.
7. New York Jets (-135)
Is that Aaron Rodgers' music?
The New York Jets' 2023 season was lost four plays in when Aaron Rodgers ruptured his Achilles, but he's expected back this season, and the Jets are seventh in the odds to make the playoffs in the AFC.
If Rodgers can return to his old form, the Jets will be a tough out with their elite defense.
First Team(s) Out in Playoff Odds
Los Angeles Chargers (-115)
The Los Angeles Chargers were one of the worst teams in the AFC last season, mainly due to a late-season injury to Justin Herbert.
They're still favored to make the playoffs in 2024, but they have the eighth best odds to make the postseason, putting them on the outside looking in. They are a team I'm looking to fade in the playoff odds due to their division (Kansas City is heavily favored) and the fact that they let several weapons (Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Austin Ekeler) go this offseason.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+100)
Can we trust Jacksonville after last season's collapse?
Oddsmakers aren't so sure. However, Jacksonville is closest in the odds to win the division with the Houston Texans sitting at just -140 to make the playoffs and still at plus money in the AFC South.
Trevor Lawrence will need to stay healthy for the Jaguars to make a run in the 2024 season.
Odds update periodically and are subject to change.