49ers vs. Packers Line Already Moving Towards Green Bay

Jan 16, 2022; Arlington, Texas, USA; San Francisco 49ers running back Elijah Mitchell (25) runs for a touchdown.
Jan 16, 2022; Arlington, Texas, USA; San Francisco 49ers running back Elijah Mitchell (25) runs for a touchdown. / Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

The Green Bay Packers play at home in Lambeau Field in late January again, and it looks like money is already pouring in to back Aaron Rodgers against the San Francisco 49ers.

The Niners however, deserve more respect than they’re currently getting. 

The line is moving towards the Packers

This game opened with Rodgers and Co. as home favorites by -4.5 over at WynnBET Sportsbook, which doesn’t seem unreasonable. You can pretty much bank on the home team getting three points right off the top in the playoffs. The fact that this has now gone up a full point and a half to -6 suggests that many bettors don’t think this is going to be close. 

That’s not wise. 

The 49ers' Defense is the Truth

One big issue I had for this game is the availability of Fred Warner, who’s one of the best linebackers in the NFL. Warner took to social media to clear the air and say “we’ll be ready to go,” pointing towards his availability for their matchup with the Packers. 

Knowing that Warner will be in the fold is a big boost to an already-tough defense. San Francisco allowed the seventh-fewest rushing yards per attempt this season at 3.0. The 49ers held opponents to the 10th-fewest points and third-fewest yards per game during the regular season, They just got done holding the No. 1 offense in the NFL in yards per game and points per game, the Dallas Cowboys, to only 17 points and 307 total yards.  

The defense can play. They are one of a handful of units that has the possibility to give Aaron Rodgers trouble. 

The 49ers' Rushing Attack will give Green Bay Problems

The 49ers boast a high-powered offense that is focused on their run game and misdirection. They throw varying looks at opposing defenses, with Elijah Mitchell operating as a bell cow running back and Deebo Samuel factoring in as a do-everything offensive weapon. Samuel has truly blossomed into an elite wide receiver who also looks like one of the best running backs in the league when he has the ball in his hands. This Kyle Shanahan system is crazy good. 

In terms of EPA/play, the 49ers ranked sixth in the NFL this year. Since Week 6, the 49ers rank seventh in Rush EPA. The Green Bay defense, on the other hand, ranked third-worst in the NFL this year at opposing Rush EPA. The varied attack of the rushing game is going to give Green Bay, who has allowed the second-highest yards per carry to opposing offenses this season, a very hard time. 

San Francisco has a great chance to not only cover the spread in this game, but to also pull the upset if they can keep the turnovers down. This line being up to -5.5 for the Packers is getting a bit out of hand, and I might have to go put some money on the 49ers to at least cover.