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Best College Football Prop Bets for Michigan vs. Iowa in Big Ten Championship

By Reed Wallach

Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy runs against Ohio State safety Josh Proctor during the first half
Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy runs against Ohio State safety Josh Proctor during the first half / Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK
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Michigan is a win away from a third straight College Football Playoff and must get passed Iowa's stout defense to do it.

This article is going to focus on player props for the Big Ten Championship, including what may be a vulnerable Iowa defense that has been protected by playing poor offenses in the Big Ten West. Can J.J. McCarthy and Colston Loveland have a big night in the title game?

Here's my favorite prop bets for the Big Ten Championship game, you can find more on this game here with our betting preview!

Best Prop Bets for Michigan vs. Iowa

  • J.J. McCarthy OVER 192.5 Passing Yards
  • Colston Loveland OVER 39.5 Receiving Yards
  • Deacon Hill UNDER 105.5 Passing Yards

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J.J. McCarthy OVER 192.5 Passing Yards

Michigan didn't need to take to the air much in its most high-leverage games of late, trusting its offensive line and run game to do enough to get through the Big Ten East gauntlet.

However, that's not this game. The Wolverines are playing indoors with a fully healthy McCarthy, who had been nursing an ankle injury suffered three weeks ago against Penn State. Michigan doesn't have to worry about the opposing offense either, as Iowa is the worst offense in terms of success rate this season.

Since the Hawkeyes star cornerback Cooper DeJean went down for the year with an injury both Nebraska and Illinois posted right around the national average in terms of EPA/Dropback this season.

Colston Loveland OVER 39.5 Receiving Yards

I mentioned how the Michigan passing game may break out at Lucas Oil Stadium, and it's clear that McCarthy trusts Loveland a ton. He had five catches for 88 yards in The Game against Ohio State and has at least three catches in five of his last six games.

Iowa hasn't faced legitimate passing games all season, and that's going to make them ill-equipped to face a potent one like Michigan, who is top 10 in yards per pass attempt. Iowa has faced one team with an above-average EPA/Pass in Penn State, who scored 31 points on them. I think Michigan runs this score up and Loveland continues to play a big role.

Get our picks for EVERY conference title game here!

Deacon Hill UNDER 105.5 Passing Yards

This number seems low, but how can we trust Hill to throw on this Michigan defense that is top five in EPA/Pass this season and Iowa is 126th in EPA/Pass? The Hawkeyes have zero semblance of a passing game, and the team can't just look to the passing game at all costs, even in a likely negative game script.

Since taking over for Cade McNamara, Hill has passed for 110, 37, 116, 65, 223, 167 and 94 yards. He is completing 48% of his passes and now will face a defense that is allowing a 54% completion percentage to opponents, seventh in the country, and is fifth in pass rush grade, according to Pro Football Focus.

Iowa's offense will generate very little in the passing game and I think Hill puts together a limited stat line.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Track Reed's bets here!

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