Best MLB Parlay Picks Today (Tigers, Braves & More Help Craft Pippin Parlay)

I have a dilemma and need your help.

On the one hand, I wrote yesterday to take the Phillies in the first-five innings instead of the full game. But I forgot to put "first five" when I wrote out the summary of the picks, so if you just looked without diving into it then you tailed the Phillies full-game moneyline.

Naturally, Philly blew a ninth-inning lead. If you took them on the first five innings, then you cashed a huge +1396 parlay! But if you did the full game, you suffered heartbreak. It was a poor job by me on double-checking, so I apologize. Though if you tailed my favorite trio of plays then you secured a +279 cash! Dollars all around.

You can decide if the big parlay hit or not. No use in lying to myself so I had to bring it to the people. In either case, I'm ready to utilize the odds at WynnBET Sportsbook to go ahead and nail one today so it won't matter. Yes, I'll be double-checking more carefully.

Best MLB Parlay Picks Today

Tigers (-110) vs White Sox

Sharp money has moved this line overnight to bring the Tigers from underdogs to slight favorites, and I agree with the movement. Detroit is 4-1 in Alex Faedo's last five starts as he's yet to allow more than two runs in a single start.

He's off to a historic start and I like his chances to keep it going. Offensively, the Tigers' lineup is objectively terrible, but White Sox starter Vince Velasquez is more terrible.

Velasquez is coming off the 15-day Injured List and sports a 6.54 expected ERA. He's been a bit lucky this year, honestly. Sometimes, a ball that is hit hard into play goes right at a defender, when more times than not that ball would be a hit. So we can use things like expected ERA and expected batting average to project a pitcher's performance moving forward.

Well, Opponents are hitting .203 against Velasquez's fastball and .294 against his curveball, but the expected batting averages for each pitch are .270 and .351. Chicago has the worst defense in the American League so those balls are turning into outs because of luck, not good defending.

With that in mind, Detroit's lineup should scratch enough runs across the board to support Faedo. They've won four straight as a favorite while the White Sox are 1-5 in their last six as a road underdog. The Tigers have the pitching advantage, both lineups are bad, and Detroit is a much better defensive team. Hold your nose and back the home squad.

Twins First Five Innings (-140) vs Mariners

Boom! Didn't forget the "first five" this time! Sonny Gray makes his return from a brief stint on the Injured List like Velasquez, but unlike the White Sox pitcher, Gray has actually been good. Very good, even. He had a 1.65 ERA in May as the Twins won all five of his starts, and he's allowed two or fewer runs in every single outing this year.

Mariners' starter Marco Gonzales, however, has been one of the luckiest pitchers in baseball this year. I wrote above how we can use expected statistics to predict a pitcher's future performance, and Gonzales' 5.08 expected ERA is dramatically higher than his actual ERA of 3.63. Gonzales walked six batters in his last start and Minnesota averages the third-most walks per game in MLB on the road.

Seattle is 3-7 over Gonzales' last 10 starts and 1-4 in his home outings. Across the board, the numbers show that negative regression is coming for the 30-year-old that walks too many batters and doesn't strike out enough. The Twins' lineup ranks fourth in OPS against right-handed pitchers over the last three weeks and they'll make Gonzales pay for his mistakes.

Braves -1.5 (-120) vs Nationals

I really enjoyed writing this preview and I hope you'll read it. But if you don't then the gist is this: the Braves are playing incredible baseball and the Nationals are not.

Atlanta will start Spencer Strider, who is quickly becoming one of the most impressive young pitchers of 2022. His fastball has the fifth-highest whiff rate (29%) among all MLB pitchers and his slider looks like this:

His slider whiff rate is 52.3%, a downright bananas number. Over half of the time an opponent swings at his slider, they miss. Throw in a changeup that he hasn't allowed a single hit on yet and you've got the makings of a top-tier starter. Strider averages 13.38 strikeouts per nine innings, a figure that would easily lead MLB if he had enough innings to qualify. The guy is legit.

So, what battle-tested warrior will the Nationals send out to take on this rising star? Oh, it's Erick Fedde day.

Fedde was decent for most of May, but it's kind of like in Cinderella how the carriage turns into a pumpkin at midnight. Sooner or later, you are who you are. And Fedde is a pumpkin.

He has a 10.45 ERA over his last three starts and a Braves lineup that is suddenly the best in baseball should have no problem smashing this pumpkin to pieces. During Atlanta's 13-game winning streak, 11 wins have come by multiple runs, including seven straight. That continues today as Strider dazzles and Fedde, um, does not.

Cubs First Five Innings (-140) vs Padres

Chicago has lost eight straight but find themselves as sizable favorites against one of the best teams in MLB today. Is this some sort of trick? No, it's not. The Cubs have a huge starting pitching advantage in starting top prospect Caleb Kilian against Ryan Weathers.

Killian made his major league debut last week and held the Cardinals to three runs over five innings, but he was a bit unlucky to give up three as his 1.42 expected ERA suggests. In 10 minor league starts this year, Kilian allowed one or fewer runs eight times.

Ryan Weathers is kind of the opposite. He had a 10.44 ERA over his last five minor league starts and was terrible in the majors in 2021. In fact, the Padres have lost eight consecutive games he's started, including seven by multiple runs.

I'm worried about Chicago's bullpen blowing a lead, but Kilian is so much better than Weathers that we'll have an edge in the first five innings.

Mets (+120) vs Brewers

I don't think we necessarily need to sound the alarms or anything, but Corbin Burnes isn't quite himself right now. He has a 6.75 ERA in two June starts, both losses, as he's struggled with command and didn't make it out of the fifth inning in either outing.

The Brewers are 1-9 over their last 10 and just 4-5 in Burnes' last nine starts. They're 1-4 in their last five as a road favorite too, so they're not winning any games at all. Fingers can be pointed directly at a pathetic lineup that's averaging 2.4 runs per game during this stretch and ranks 29th in OPS over the last two weeks.

New York is 12-5 over their last 17 and miles above Milwaukee right now. They've yet to lose a start by David Peterson this year and a $100 moneyline bettor would be up $565.68 over his seven appearances.

If I'm being frank, the Brewers are too terrible right now to be favored over most teams. I'd make this a pick-'em even if Burnes were much better than Peterson, but he's not. And the Mets have been one of the very best teams in baseball. Take the plus money on the home underdog to extend Milwaukee's misery.

MLB Parlay for June 15, 2022

The "Always Double-Check" Parlay (+2163)

• Tigers (-110) vs White Sox

• Twins First Five Innings (-140) vs Mariners

• Braves -1.5 (-120) vs Nationals

• Cubs First Five Innings (-140) vs Padres

• Mets (+120) vs Brewers

Bang, baaaang and we have a hump day parlay! As always, I recommend you pick your favorite plays to craft your own parlay, because hitting a five-teamer is hard. But as you're filling out your bet slip at WynnBET, keep these games in mind.

I'll have a sprinkle on all five as a $25 bet profits $540.75 but my favorite trio is a Twins first five innings, Braves -1.5, and Cubs first five innings. Putting those three together gives you odds of +439 ($109.75 on a $25 bet), which is still lovely if I do say so myself.

Best of luck and let's keep those dollars flowing!

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.