Best MLB Upset Picks for April 17 (Back Rangers, Pirates on the Road)
Breaking down the best MLB upset picks for the action on Wednesday, April 17.
It's a getaway day in MLB for most teams and traditional betting theory says that these are the days to be extra careful with because the lineups are often different than typical as managers want to give players a day off when traveling.
However, viewed through a different lens, these games could also present an opportunity when the right situation shows up on the schedule.
The great news is that with both of these coming in at plus money, I just need one to hit in order to come out ahead.
I managed to go 2-0 last week, let's see if I can keep the mojo going with this week's picks.
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Texas Rangers at Detroit Tigers
Yep, I'm going full contrarian against young Tarik Skubal against a powerful Texas Rangers lineup.
Skubal has pitched to a 2.08 ERA on the season and has recorded a 3-0 record in the process, but the Rangers hit him well last season, batting .381 and slugging .667 in 23 plate appearances against the young star.
It's not a getaway day in Detroit as the Rangers and Tigers will continue their series on Thursday, but Adolis Garcia sat out Tuesday's Tiger win before pinch-hitting in the ninth, so it's likely he will play Wednesday for the Rangers, but that's worth keeping an eye on.
You won't find me going against Skubal often, but assuming Garcia plays, the lineup the budding star faces Wednesday isn't remotely like the White Sox, A's or Twins that he's seen so far in 2024.
On top of all that, I'm expecting the Tigers to regress from their early season success and this number makes the decision to back the Rangers in this situation a bit easier.
PICK: Rangers Moneyline +120
Pittsburgh Pirates at New York Mets
It was just last week that I chose to back Bailey Falter against the Philadelphia Phillies on the road and finally got something right.
Most people would take the W and run fast and far away, thinking they got one over on the books.
Me? I'm going back to the well, as Falter and the Pirates are once again underdogs on the road, this time in New York against Luis Severino and the Mets.
After getting rocked in his initial outing of 2024, Falter has given up a single run over his last 11 innings against Baltimore and Philadelphia.
Severino meanwhile has been serviceable, but hasn't made it past the 5th inning of any of his first three starts and some underlying metrics hint at regression.
The caveats do apply here: Pittsburgh is headed home after this one, with an off day tomorrow, so proceed with caution.
PICK: Pirates Moneyline +112
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.