Best MLB Upset Picks for May 13 (Back the Cubs and A's)
I'm naturally someone who gravitates towards favorites when betting, but I've had more success picking upsets this season than I have in the quality start picks and that's for obvious reasons.
As happened last week, a 1-1 day gets you on the positive side of the unit ledger, but I've also enjoyed analyzing the games through the underdog's lens.
The nature of baseball lends itself to upsets. There are no David vs. Goliath matchups in this game, anybody can beat anybody on any given day.
Just ask the World Champion Texas Rangers who left Coors Field with three losses added to their ledger.
So, never say never, even with the two picks I'm sharing today.
Chicago Cubs vs Atlanta Braves
The Braves had a really good week after getting pole-axed by the Dodgers the weekend prior, going 4-1 and giving up just nine runs.
But the Braves offense only scored 20, reaching 5 just once.
For some offense that may be average or even good, but not if you're the Atlanta Braves.
There's also the fact that Atlanta played Sunday Night Baseball in New York and this game is in Atlanta less than 24 hours later did I mention Shota Imanaga is on the mound for the Cubs?
Imanaga is 5-0 with a 1.08 ERA and the Cubs have won all seven of his starts, which includes games against the Dodgers, Mariners, Boston, and the Mets, among others.
Imanaga is bound to regress at some point, but his xERA is only 2.31 and in the top 6% of the league and he rarely walks batters.
Reynaldo Lopez is someone I've bet on this season and he's having a similar season to Imanaga. at least on the surface.
Lopez is only 2-1 with a 1.53 ERA and the Braves are 4-2 in his starts.
The difference is Lopez's expected ERA is more than double that 1.53 number at 3.71 and none of his peripherals suggest he's as good as Imanaga.
Giving me pause is the fact that the Cubs bullpen used five arms on Sunday against the Pirates,
but the Cubs have the better pitcher going, Atlanta played late Sunday in New York and the Braves haven't been scoring.
PICK: Cubs +122
Oakland A's vs Houston Astros
It's May 13 and the Houston Astros are looking up at the Oakland A's in the American League West standings.
Oakland is no juggernaut, but the Astros have been dreadful this season, outside of games where Ronel Blanco or Justin Verlander have started.
Rookie right-hander Spencer Arrighetti is going for Houston and while he has flashed at times, he's also the owner of an 8.44 ERA across five starts and 21.1 innings.
Sure, his xERA is much lower at 5.63, but that's still only in the 11th percentile of MLB, and Arrighetti's other advanced numbers aren't very good either.
Ross Stripling, the A's starter, has been just as bad in many areas, but his xERA (3.76) is much lower than his actual ERA (5.14), suggesting some bad luck.
This will likely be a game where the bullpens are involved early and the A's group has performed much better than the Astros.
I'm not under the illusion Stripling or the A's are good, just that the value on this number lies with an A's team that is playing with house money versus an Astro's team that has been putrid most of the season and is struggling to find "it".
Oakland is 9-10 on the road this season, while Houston is 7-12 at Minute Maid Park.
I'm struggling to see how the Astros are favored, much less by this number.
PICK: A's +152
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.