Best NFL Prop Bets for Lions vs. Chiefs on Thursday Night Football in Week 1

Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs enter Week 1 of the 2023 season with a little uncertainty after Travis Kelce hyper-extended his knee in Tuesday’s practice. 

There’s a chance Kelce misses this game with the Detroit Lions on Thursday, and that’s moved the line from Chiefs -6.5 to Chiefs -4.5. 

While the defending champs are still favored, they could be in for a dogfight against Jared Goff and the upstart Lions.

Kelce’s potential absence muddles the prop market a bit for bettors, but there are a few plays that I think are solid bets to make whether he plays or not. 

If you’re thinking of diving into the prop market in Week 1, make sure that you do it at DraftKings Sportsbook. 

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Here are my three favorite props for the first game of the 2023 NFL regular season: 

Best NFL Prop Bets for Lions vs. Chiefs in NFL Week 1

• Jerick McKinnon OVER 25.5 Receiving Yards
• Chiefs Team Total OVER 28.5 Points
• Amon-Ra St. Brown OVER 6.5 Receptions

For more Week 1 picks, check out our NFL betting analyst Iain MacMillan’s best bet for every game on the slate here!

Jerick McKinnon OVER 25.5 Receiving Yards

Jerick McKinnon may be one of the primary beneficiaries if Kelce sits, and I’d be surprised to see the star tight end in Week 1 given the quick turnaround. 

Last season, McKinnon had 10 different games with 26 or more receiving yards, and he saw 71 targets during the regular season. 

Mahomes clearly trusts him out of the backfield, and he could be a safety blanket option should Kelce sit. As long as the volume is there, McKinnon is a great bet in Week 1. 

Chiefs Team Total OVER 28.5 Points

Yes, Kelce may sit, but the movement on this line from 30.5 to 28.5 is a value for bettors. 

Since Mahomes became the team’s starting quarterback, Kansas City has not only won every game in Week 1, but it has scored 30 or more points in each matchup as well. 

Chiefs Week 1 Points in Patrick Mahomes Era

• 2018: 38 (beat the Los Angeles Chargers 38-28)
• 2019: 40 (beat Jacksonville 40-26)
• 2020: 34 (beat Houston 34-20)
• 2021: 33 (beat Cleveland 33-29)
• 2022: 44 (beat Arizona 44-21)

For those counting at home, that’s an average of 37.8 points per game in Week 1 in the Mahomes era. Kelce is great, but the team can still get by without him – especially against a Lions defense that allowed the most yards per play in the NFL last season.

Amon-Ra St. Brown OVER 6.5 Receptions

Amon-Ra St. Brown is the clear-cut No. 1 receiver for the Lions, especially with Jameson Williams currently serving a six-game suspension. 

The one-time Pro Bowler had 106 catches on 146 targets last season in 16 games (and one of those games he made just one catch before exiting with an injury)

St. Brown had nine different games with at least seven receptions, and I think the game script in Week 1 will work in his favor. 

Kansas City – even without Kelce – should win this game based on the point spread, which means the Lions are going to need to play catch up. Even if Detroit wins, I expect this game to be high scoring (the total is set at 52.5), which should mean plenty of passing attempts for Goff. 

St. Brown should rack up the targets and catches early on in 2023.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Find Peter Dewey's betting record here.