Best NFL Team Total Bets to Make for Week 12 (Fade Jets, Buy Texans)

Breaking down the best NFL team total bets to make in Week 12 of the 2023 season.

Oct 1, 2023; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) celebrates after a
Oct 1, 2023; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) celebrates after a / Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

In a week that features three games on Thursday, many fans may believe NFL betting opportunities over the weekend are limited.

That might be especially true if you focus on sides and game totals, but this season I've found that betting on team totals can be a nice niche when the season reaches November.

Game sides and totals have become sharper at this point, leaving little opportunity in that space for the average bettor, so why not turn toward team totals to gain an edge?

For more Week 12 picks, check out our NFL betting analyst Iain MacMillan’s best bet for every game on the slate here!

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Here are four of my favorite team totals for week 12:

Dolphins vs. Jets Team Total Prediction

This one seems a bit obvious, but that doesn't mean it's not a good bet despite the Miami Dolphins defense not being anything special this season.

The good news is they don't have to be special this week as the New York Jets have decided to make the change to 29-year-old journeyman Tim Boyle, with recently signed Trevor Siemian acting as his backup. What could go wrong?

The Jets have gone under this number six times in 10 games, including twice at home.

The hook on the end of the 14 provides some protection in the event of a defensive or garbage time touchdown.

Pick: Jets UNDER 14.5 points

Panthers vs. Titans Team Total Prediction

Simply put, the Carolina Panthers are the worst team in the NFL and in retrospect chose the wrong quarterback to be the face of their franchise.

That choice will likely affect this franchise for the next half-decade, at least.

That said, Tennessee is next to last in rushing and passing yards allowed this season. Meanwhile, the Panthers have done some of their better offensive work on the road this season.

I'm not saying the Panthers are going to light up the scoreboard or even win the game, but there's no reason they can't get to 17 against a porous Tennessee Titans defense.

Pick: Panthers OVER 16.5 points

Jaguars vs. Texans Team Total Prediction

Week 3 against the Jacksonville Jaguars was the beginning of the Houston Texans' renaissance -- their first win of the season and C.J. Stroud's coming-out party.

The rookie threw for 280 yards and two touchdowns, completing 20-of-30 passes without an interception in Jacksonville.

While I doubt the Texans put up 37 points this time around, or get an 85-yard kickoff return for a touchdown by a fullback, 24 points at home is certainly doable against a Jacksonville defense that allows over 250 yards per game through the air and has given up 16 touchdown passes in 10 games.

With Kai'imi Fairbairn on injured reserve, the Texans field goal kicking situation is a concern, and they are less explosive if Noah Brown (questionable) is not on the field.

Normally, given the injuries above, I wouldn't go over 23.5, but the Texans are finding ways to score other than traditional routes.

I'm willing to ride it out at least one more week, especially at NRG Stadium.

Pick: Texans OVER 23.5 points

Bears vs. Vikings Team Total Prediction

As long as we're living on the edge, let's look at Monday Night''s primetime affair to complete the week.

The trendy pick here would be Joshua Dobbs to lead the Minnesota Vikings to a home win and he may do that, but I'm on the under for the Vikings' team total.

In five home games to date, the Vikings have reached this number exactly once, and then just barely in a 28-24 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers.

The caveat here is that the Bears could do something completely boneheaded and give the Vikings a touchdown or two, but I'm betting that won't happen this week.

The UNDER is hitting at a tremendous rate on Monday night this season, and while that doesn't guarantee the Vikings go under their total in this spot, it's certainly an indication points are likely to be at a premium Monday night.

Pick: Vikings UNDER 23.5

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.