Best NRFI and YRFI Bets Today (Cubs vs Orioles Highlights Three Matchups Worth Betting)

Jordan Lyles has only allowed a first-inning run twice in 11 starts.
Jordan Lyles has only allowed a first-inning run twice in 11 starts. / Patrick Smith/GettyImages

After a solid 2-1 day yesterday, I'm gunning for a sweep of No Run First Inning (NRFI) and Yes Run First Inning (YRFI) bets on today's tantalizing 15-game MLB slate.

There's some quality pitching matchups to target and some not-so-quality ones as well. With potential poor weather in a few places, we've got quite a few games with value.

Using the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook, I've selected the best of the best and I'm pleased to present my favorite NRFI/YRFI bets of the day:

Best NRFI and YRFI Bets Today

Mets vs Padres NRFI (-135)

This is a strong pitching matchup with Chris Bassitt taking on Sean Manaea, and runs should be hard to come by early on. The Mets are a ferocious first-inning team at home, scoring a first-inning run in 55% of those contests, but they score one in just 25% of their road games. San Diego's defense is among the best in MLB and it's helped them allow a run in the first inning in only 26.79% of their matchups.

While I'm confident the Mets won't score in the opening frame, I'm especially confident the Padres won't.

New York allows a first-inning run in less than one-fourth of their games and San Diego's lineup is terrible against right-handed pitching. The Padres rank 28th in OPS against righty's over the last month and Bassitt should take advantage of their propensity for weak contact.

Rockies vs Giants YRFI (-120)

This is my favorite first-inning bet on the slate as I expect a bunch of runs. To call Rockies' starter Antonio Senzatela a trainwreck would be an insult to damaged trains. He has an expected ERA of 7.25 and his MLB Statcast Pitching Profile looks like he's trying too hard to tell Neo to take the blue pill in the Matrix:

The Rockies allow a first-inning run in nearly 40% of their road matchups and the Giants' top of the lineup should strike early. But even if they don't, Colorado has a favorable matchup against Alex Wood as well. They have the second-best OPS against left-handed pitchers on the season and Wood has a 5.40 ERA in the opening frame, giving up six runs in 10 outings.

Both squads are among the worst defensive teams in MLB, only helping our case. Expect runs early and often in this one.

Cubs vs Orioles NRFI (+100)

It's a dicey proposition to fade the Cubs' lineup in the first inning. They lead MLB in first-inning scoring percentage, plating a run in a whopping 46.43% of their matchups. This bet essentially comes down to one question: how much can we trust Orioles' starter Jordan Lyles?

Honestly, I think the answer is a fair amount. Lyles has a 4.50 ERA on the season but a 2.93 ERA at home, and he's been sharp in the opening frame. He's held his opponent scoreless in the first inning in nine of his 11 starts. The issues Lyles has tend to pop up later in his outings as he gets tired, but he's downright dominant when he's fresh.

On the other end, the Orioles are the league's worst first-inning offense, scoring a run in only 14.04% of their games. Chicago is the second-stingiest club in the first inning as well, allowing an early run in less than 20% of the time. I'll trust Lyles to stay dominant and the Orioles' lineup to stay paltry. Give me the plus odds on NRFI before the runs start piling on.

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.