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Best Prop Bets for SMU vs. TCU in College Football Week 4

What props should you target in the 'Battle for the Iron Skillet'

By Reed Wallach

Sep 9, 2023; Norman, Oklahoma, USA; Southern Methodist Mustangs quarterback Preston Stone (2)
Sep 9, 2023; Norman, Oklahoma, USA; Southern Methodist Mustangs quarterback Preston Stone (2) / Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
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TCU has bounced back after a Week 1 loss to Colorado in front of a national audience, winning back-to-back games by double digits, but face another potent offense in SMU, is the defense fixed?

We'll break down the best prop angles for 'The Battle of the Iron Skillet' on Saturday, including the emerging SMU defense as well as a quarterback to go off in this matchup with an over/under north of 60. If you want a full betting breakdown on the side and total, you can check that out here.

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Best Prop Bets for SMU vs. TCU

  • Preston Stone OVER 250.5 Passing Yards
  • Emani Bailey UNDER 86.5 Rushing Yards
  • Chandler Morris OVER 0.5 Interceptions Thrown

Preston Stone OVER 250.5 Passing Yards

Stone has flirted with this number all season, he has games with 300, 250 and 248 passing yards, now he gets to face a lackluster TCU defense that still needs to prove its an above average defense this season nationally.

In its lone game against a formidable passing attack, Colorado touched up this team through the air for 510 yards, all we need is about half of that to get over this number.

SMU has a pass-happy offense with the big armed Stone and familiarity against the team's defense, putting up 34 points on 372 passing yards last season. I'll take the over here in a coming out party for Stone.

Emani Bailey UNDER 86.5 Rushing Yards

Bailey has been a stud this season, rushing for over 100 yards in two of three games, but I'm going to believe in this SMU defensive front to make TCU go to the air more often. The Mustangs defensive front has held up nicely under Scott Symons, first year defensive coordinator from Liberty, ranking 32nd in line yards and 29th in tackles for loss.

Overall, the Mustangs defense is allowing less than three yards per carry this season, granted against lackluster competition outside of Oklahoma, but this prop is set to high for my liking. I'll plug my nose and take the under.

Chandler Morris OVER 0.5 Interceptions Thrown

It's a steep price to pay on this prop, but this SMU defense is due for some turnover luck. The team has only forced one turnover this season despite ranking 32nd in havoc rate this season, which measures passes defended, tackles for loss and turnovers generated.

The Mustangs defense is incredibly improved this season and I believe it shows out against TCU, especially given Morris' propensity to put himself in harms way as a passer this season.

Morris has thrown six touchdowns to three interceptions, but when you look closer, you see that he has been skating by disaster. Morris has made seven "big time throws" to five "turnover worthy plays," according to Pro Football Focus.

The QB is leaving the ball out there for turnovers and I think this SMU defense is due for some big plays.

Don't miss our picks for every Top 25 game against the spread (ATS) here!

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Track Reed's bets here!

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