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Best Prop Bets for USC vs. Notre Dame in College Football Week 7

Breaking down the best prop bets for this matchup in South Bend.

By Reed Wallach

Oct 7, 2023; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans quarterback Caleb Williams
Oct 7, 2023; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans quarterback Caleb Williams / Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
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All eyes will be fixated on South Bend, Indiana on Saturday night when USC faces its first test of the season at Notre Dame.

Caleb Williams has been putting the Trojans on his back again this season in hopes of a repeat Heisman Trophy season, but will that show up against the toughest defense it has seen this season. What about Notre Dame quarterback Sam Hartman, who has a lofty passing yard total against a lackluster USC defense?

Here are my favorite prop bets for this USC vs. Notre Dame. For more, check out our full game betting preview here.

Best Prop Bets for USC vs. Notre Dame

  • Caleb Williams UNDER 294.5 Passing Yards
  • Sam Hartman UNDER 264.5 Passing Yards
  • Audric Estime UNDER 8.5 Receiving Yards

Caleb Williams UNDER 294.5 Passing Yards

Williams is as talented as they come, but it's time to sell this USC offense against the best defense it has faced this season.

Notre Dame's secondary has been downright elite this season, 30th in coverage grade per Pro Football Focus and 20th in EPA/Pass. I believe that the USC offense, that may still be without star freshman Zachariah Branch, will struggle to establish a passing game in this one.

Just last week, Williams passed for 219 yards against an Arizona team that is outisde the top 100 in coverage grade this season. Against a Notre Dame team that plays at a bottom 30 pace this season in terms of plays per minute, I'm not confident Williams can get to this number, especially when considering that there may be heavy rain and wind in the forecast this weekend.

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Sam Hartman UNDER 264.5 Passing Yards

I'm not a believer in this USC defense, but I don't believe the game script will lend itself to Hartman going over this total. As noted above, the weather may be a factor in this one, but also the Fighting Irish don't want Hartman to be slinging all over the field.

Hartman has cleared this total in two games this season as the Irish employ a run heavy approach -- the team's near-47% pass percentage is 85th in the country -- and the team is outisde the top 100 in plays per minute.

I believe Notre Dame wants to try and out-muscle the USC defense at the line of scrimmage with the ground game and keep Williams on the sidelines. I'll happily grab this under.

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Audric Estime UNDER 8.5 Receiving Yards

This number is incredibly, low but I'm not turned off of it. This is a grueling stretch of games for Notre Dame, the team's eighth straight contest and fourth straight in primetime against an undefeated opponent.

Estime left the Louisville game early with a lower leg injury, but there's no mention of him being out for this one. That being said, I believe that some lingering wounds after north of 100 carries in seven games can put him on a bit of a pitch count against USC, especially in non-run situations.

Estime has recorded a catch in five of seven games, so in some cases he hasn't played a role at all in the passing game. With the situation around his injury and fatigue, I'm going to fade Estime this way by taking the under on his receiving yards prop.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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