Both of the favorites -- the San Francisco 49ers and Baltimore Ravens -- won in the divisional round action on Saturday, and that's a bad sign for the two favorites in Sunday's divisional round action.
A recent betting trend favors the underdogs to pull off an upset, as all four favorites have won in the divisional round just two times in the last 20 years.
The 49ers were nearly upset on Saturday, but a late comeback allowed the team to escape and advance to the NFC Championship Game.
On Sunday, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Kansas City Chiefs are both underdogs that will have a chance to keep the trend going of at least one dog winning in the divisonal round.
Buccaneers vs. Lions Odds, Spread and Total
The Buccaneers are nearly touchdown underdogs in this game, but I like them to at least cover the spread in Detroit. I broke down why in my NFL Spread Picks for this week:
After winning outright as an underdog on Wild Card Weekend, Tampa Bay is now 9-3 against the spread as a dog this season.
While the Lions have been dominant at home – 7-2 straight up – this is a lot of points to give Baker Mayfield and the Bucs, who showed that they can really move the ball against a weak pass defense in the game against Philly.
Well, they’re in luck, because the Lions ranked 30th in the NFL in net yards per pass attempt allowed this season.
Detroit has been the better team this season -- and has been dominant at home -- but don't sleep on this Tampa Bay offense moving the ball through the air after it dominated last week.
Chiefs vs. Bills Odds, Spread and Total
The Chiefs are my upset pick of the week, so naturally, I expect this betting trend to hold up.
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes has owned the Buffalo Bills in the playoffs, and he’s also dominated as an underdog in his career.
I love him and the Chiefs in this spot, as he is 8-1-1 against the spread as an underdog in his NFL career, including an impressive 7-3 record straight up.
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Kansas City had the No. 2 scoring defense in the regular season, and the team showed it is built for the playoffs with a blowout win over Miami on Wild Card Weekend. While this is Mahomes' first true road playoff game, I have a hard time fading the two-time defending Super Bowl champion.
I’m worried about Josh Allen and the Bills turning the ball over – they had the seventh most in the league this season with 28 -- as that could completely flip this game in the Chiefs' favor.
While the Bills are a tough team to beat at home, can we really fade Mahomes given his success as an underdog? It's not something I'm willing to do in this game.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.