Biggest Winners and Losers from the MLB Trade Deadline (Padres Win Soto Sweepstakes, Orioles Still Sell)

Tuesday, Aug. 2, 2022 is a day that may go down in the history books, as it’s quite possible we saw the biggest trade deadline move in MLB history. 

The San Diego Padres acquired 23-year-old superstar Juan Soto from the Washington Nationals in a multi-player deal, shooting themselves up the odds board to win the World Series this season. 

This year, the trade market materialized over multiple days, with the Seattle Mariners and New York Yankees making early swings, while a few contenders failed to really improve their chances. 

With a huge number of players changing franchises, there were a few clear winners, and some clear losers. Before you place any futures for the 2022 World Series winner, let’s break down who won this year’s deadline:

Biggest Winners at MLB Trade Deadline

San Diego Padres (World Series Odds: +1100)

The Padres are the CLEAR winners of the deadline, as they brought in Josh Hader in a deal with the Milwaukee Brewers and then struck gold in a massive deal for Soto. 

The Padres parted ways with a ton of prospects, but they are going ALL IN for the 2022 season (and beyond) by acquiring one of the game’s best young players in Soto. With Fernando Tatis Jr. on the mend, the Padres are a really sneaky team in the NL wild card race, as they’ve seen their odds to win the World Series go from +2000 to +1200 in the latest consensus odds. 

Josh Bell also comes to San Diego in the Soto deal, and the Padres were able to unload Eric Hosmer to the Boston Red Sox to open up a roster spot. This was a masterful deadline by a Padres front office that clearly thinks the team’s championship window is open. 

New York Yankees (World Series Odds: +350)

The Yankees may not have landed Soto or Luis Castillo, but they avoided trading any of their top four prospects (Anthony Volpe, Oswald Peraza, Jasson Dominguez and Austin Wells) and still brought in some serious talent. 

New York made separate deals with the Kansas City Royals, Oakland Athletics and Chicago Cubs to acquire:

• OF Andrew Benintendi (All-Star)
• RP Scott Effross
• RP Lou Trivino
• SP Frankie Montas

The Yankees also moved on from Joey Gallo, dealing him to the Los Angeles Dodgers for a pitching prospect, which is key after they gave away several in their deadline deals. 

New York is the favorite to win the World Series, and rightfully so, and it fixed some holes left by injuries to Luis Severino, Chad Green and Michael King. With the best record in baseball and now an improved team, it’s hard to dislike what the Yankees have done at the deadline. 

Houston Astros (World Series Odds: +425)

Listen, I’m in on the Houston Astros, as I have them in the No. 1 spot in my MLB Power Rankings. 

Houston didn’t hold back at the deadline, adding two bats in Trey Mancini (trade with Baltimore) and Christian Vasquez (trade with Boston) and a relief pitcher in Will Smith from the Atlanta Braves. 

The Astros don’t have the best farm system, yet they were able to acquire serious impact players that have kept them among the top teams in the World Series odds. 

Seattle Mariners (World Series Odds: +3500)

The Seattle Mariners are charging in the AL Wild Card race, and they made arguably the biggest pitching move at the deadline by dealing for Cincinnati Reds All-Star starter Luis Castillo. 

The Mariners now have a scary rotation that could make them a tough team to beat in the postseason: 

• Robbie Ray
• Logan Gilbert
• Luis Castillo
• George Kirby
• Chris Flexen

The Mariners have gone from +7500 to +3500 to win the World Series over the last few weeks, and they are making the most of a solid young core. I respect them for going after a playoff spot with the Castillo deal. 

Biggest Losers at MLB Trade Deadline

Baltimore Orioles (World Series Odds: +25000)

The Baltimore Orioles have really overachieved this season, but they went back to their selling ways at the deadline. 

Baltimore traded away longtime player Trey Mancini, and it also moved All-Star closer Jorge Lopez, who had 2.5 years of team control left on his deal. 

You can look at this as the Orioles selling high to boost their already impressive farm system, but Baltimore isn’t far off from a playoff spot. The O’s are 2.5 games (!!) out of a playoff spot, yet they appear to be content with losing for another season before making a playoff run. 

Boston Red Sox (World Series Odds: +8500)

Honest question: What are the Boston Red Sox doing?

Boston moved one of its longest tenured players in Christian Vasquez, and it proceeded to bring back three veterans in separate deals in Reese McGuire, Tommy Pham and Eric Hosmer. 

I honestly don’t know what Boston is trying to accomplish, as it didn’t make a big move to make a playoff push, and it held onto most of its top assets, leaving it in purgatory in the AL. 

Maybe Boston gets hot and makes the playoffs, but I really don’t understand the thinking here from the franchise. 

Washington Nationals (World Series Odds: +100000)

Did the Nationals get a haul for Juan Soto?

Yes. 

Did they also trade JUAN SOTO? 

They did. 

The Nationals are a loser this deadline no matter what, as they are going to hope that one of these prospects one day turns out to be close to as good as Soto. Whenever you trade the face of the franchise when he has 2.5 years left on his deal and he’s only 23 years old, you’re doing something wrong as an organization. 

Washington’s team isn’t even recognizable from the World Series roster from 2019. 

Toronto Blue Jays (World Series Odds +1400)

I don’t think the Toronto Blue Jays are massive losers, but they watched multiple teams in the AL (New York, Seattle, Houston, Minnesota) improve while they made one minor move for a couple of relief pitchers. 

Toronto also acquired Whit Merrifield from the Kansas City Royals right before the deadline, but Merrifield was one of 10 Royals players that couldn't travel to Canada due to his vaccination status. One would assume that if he's a Blue Jay, that status will change.

The move will certainly help the Jays, but fans (such as our own Iain MacMillan) have to feel a little underwhelmed by these moves for a usually aggressive organization.

Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.