Bills' Loss to Patriots May Have Played Them out of the AFC Playoff Picture
By Ben Heisler
Monday night's 14-10 home loss to the New England Patriots may not have been the Buffalo Bills' worst loss of the season, but it could certainly be their most costly.
The Patriots attempted just three passes from quarterback Mac Jones in their 14-10 victory in prime time, moving up two spots over the Bills for the top spot in the AFC East standings.
As New England heads into their bye week, the Bills have a daunting task ahead. After once standing near the top of the AFC standings, Buffalo has fallen all the way down to the seventh and final playoff seed in the conference.
AFC playoff picture:
— Zak Keefer (@zkeefer) December 7, 2021
New England potentially winning the AFC East would help the Colts, who obviously have the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Bills pic.twitter.com/n1xc6TezwY
Not only do they need to hang on just to make it into the postseason, their road through the rest of the season is about as challenging as it gets. Following a gut-wrenching home loss that could have tied them with New England in the division, they now have two road games left that they'll almost certainly be heavy underdogs in: at Tampa Bay and at New England.
Bills remaining schedule pic.twitter.com/kJwUZQ2nS8
— Nick Jacobs (@Jacobs71) December 7, 2021
Buffalo Bills Remaining Schedule and Odds
Heading into Week 14, the Bills are 3.5-point road dogs to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the late afternoon game this week at Raymond James Stadium. This will not be an easy task, especially when you consider the betting trends to go along with it. Tampa Bay is undefeated at home, 4-1 against the spread, including covering every game after Week 1 vs. Dallas, and 2-1 ATS with a rest advantage, including a margin of victory of 16.3 points via TeamRankings.
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Buffalo has now been passed up by New England in division odds at WynnBET Sportsbook, as well as in Super Bowl odds. After opening ahead of Week 13 at +750, third in the NFL to win it all, they've now fallen down to +900, sixth-highest in the league. Meanwhile, the Patriots opened last week at +1400 to win the Lombardi trophy, but have moved all the way up to +700, fourth behind only the Buccaneers, Packers and Chiefs.
FWIW, in MOST realistic scenarios, the Bills are going to lose the tiebreakers to Indy (head-to-head) and Cincy (conference) and LAC (conference) if everybody finishes 10-7.
— Matt Verderame (@MattVerderame) December 7, 2021
Super early and probably won't matter, but food for thought. Buffalo might need 11 wins to get in
The good news for the Bills is they have three very winnable games left on the schedule in home games vs. Carolina and Atlanta and the New York Jets. But that only gets them to 10 wins as they currently sit 7-5. That means, they'll either need a road win vs. Tampa Bay or New England to likely make the postseason if everything else goes as planned.
Crazier things have happened, but the Bills not making the playoffs the year after going to the AFC Championship game would make for one of the biggest stunners of the 2021 NFL season.